D'Andre Swift Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)
Eagles vs. Chiefs | 8:15 p.m. ET
Week 11 comes to a conclusion at Arrowhead Stadium, where we have an exciting Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams have been battle tested recently, playing against conference rivals — Dolphins and Cowboys, respectively — and are also coming off bye weeks.
D’Andre Swift has established himself as the Eagles' primary running back since Week 2, with an average of 16.8 carries per game. He has achieved the over on this number (13.5) in seven of his last eight games.
The Eagles' key to winning is their ground game. The Chiefs have a strong secondary — led by the duo of L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie — and they have been successful in preventing opposing offenses from having success through the air. K.C. has the third-best DVOA against the pass. However, against the run, the Chiefs rank 22nd in DVOA.
Opposing running backs like Javonte Williams, Raheem Mostert, and Joshua Kelley have each had at least 70 rush yards against the Chiefs recently.
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Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni understands the importance of controlling the clock and keeping Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. By emphasizing the running game, the Eagles can keep the ball out of Mahomes' hands and give themselves a greater chance of success.
Looking at the data (per TeamRankings), this has been the gameplan for all teams when facing the Chiefs. The opposing rush percentage of 36.2 (No. 26) climbs to 47.2 (No. 3) when playing at Arrowhead Stadium.
Given the inclement weather and a close point spread, expect the former Lion to have a significant role.
