Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper and Jalen Hurts have the three most popular player prop picks for Saturday Night Football between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.
By-and-large, this contest won't affect playoff seeding by too extraordinary of a degree.
The Cowboys are most likely the No. 4 seed, even if they win this contest. The Action Network's data indicates the Cowboys have a roughly 89% chance of being the No. 4 seed and playing the Cardinals in the Wild Card Round.
As long as the Rams beat the 49ers tomorrow, the Cowboys will be the four-seed no matter what Dallas does tonight.
There is a scenario where if the 49ers win, the Seahawks beat the Cardinals and the Buccaneers beat the Panthers, the Cowboys become the No. 3 seed.
There's an outside chance of Dallas jumping up to the No. 2 seed but it's not likely.
The Eagles are locked into the No. 6 or No. 7 seeds. If the Eagles win and the 49ers lose to the Rams, Philadelphia would be the six-seed. Any other result would give them the No. 7 seed and, likely, a date with the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round.
The Eagles are missing 11 players on the COVID list and have injuries across their offensive line.
So, this game is difficult to handicap. Still, the public is hammering the Eagles' spread at +4, convinced that's too many points to lay for a contest where both teams may take it relatively easy to avoid injury.
The public is also hammering these three player props.
Cowboys vs. Eagles Most Popular NFL Player Props
- Ezekiel Elliott to score a touchdown at any time (+100)
- Amari Cooper to score a touchdown at any time (+185)
- Jalen Hurts to score a touchdown at any time (+160)
Odds and data provided by PointsBet.
It's curious that every touchdown prop for this game is even money or above. Ezekiel Elliott's most popular prop is the most expensive at +100. Typically, at least two players have minus-money to score a touchdown at any time.
There is a possibility that some of these players rest later in the game with seeding only a mild afterthought. That's priced into the market, but if both teams try for the win, that'll add good value to these props.
Elliott has scored a touchdown in eight of his 16 games this season, which implies that his odds for this prop should be somewhere around even money. That jibes with the market price, as of Saturday afternoon.
The Eagles are league average with the 16th-ranked overall defense and 16th-ranked rush defense in the NFL.
Meanwhile, for Amari Cooper's second-most popular player prop, I'd stay away. Touchdown props for wide receivers and tight ends generally have negative expected value.
Jalen Hurts has scored a touchdown in five of 15 games this season, which implies the odds should be roughly +200.
The best value on the market for Saturday night is with Elliott's touchdown prop. If you're bullish that these teams aren't just going to lay down for a primetime divisional matchup, then that'll be a solid bet for your portfolio tonight.
