Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Falcons vs. Eagles parlay tonight.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Falcons vs. Eagles Monday Night Football parlay built on DraftKings.
Falcons vs. Eagles Parlay for Sunday Night Football
- Over 46 (-108)
- Saquon Barkley Under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Bijan Robinson Receptions Under 4.5 (-130)
- Drake London Anytime TD (+165)
Full Falcons vs. Eagles Parlay Odds: +1300 | $10 Bet Wins $130
Over 46 (-108)
The new-look Falcons offense looked an awful lot like the Arthur Smith-era Atlanta teams, scoring just ten points in a slow-paced 18-10 loss against the Steelers.
However, if we've learned anything so far in Week 2, it's to not overreact to what happened in Week 1. The Falcons have plenty of weapons in the offense with Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and Drake London, and we were optimistic about their offensive outlook coming into the season.
My view is that the scoring environment in this game is heavily dependent on the Falcons ability to keep pace. The Eagles will likely get there even without AJ Brown, as they aren't exactly short on offensive threats either.
That also puts us in a good spot to build the rest of this parlay, where we can focus on the scenario of Atlanta putting up enough points to make it something of a shootout.
Saquon Barkley Under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Any player prop unders are going to give us big odds when paired with the game over, as they're negatively correlated on paper.
I'm not sure that they truly are in a game like this, though. Some part of Saquon's rushing expectation is based on a positive game script for the Eagles, given their -5.5 point spread.
However, our thesis on the over is that Atlanta keeps it close, which likely cuts into Barkley's rushing opportunities.
The Falcons were also a heavy pass funnel defense in 2023, ranking 30th in DVOA against the pass but 11th against the run. There's enough year-over-year turnover that we can't be confident that continues, but at least in Week 1, it was still true.
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Bijan Robinson Under 4.5 Receptions (-130)
The opposite side of that game script coin involves the Falcons being able to run the ball a bit more than expected. If they have some success early on and keep the game close, they won't have the pass rate implied by their +5.5 line.
That could impact Robinson, who we have projected to fall a bit short of this line in our NFL Props Tool.
The Falcons passing offense has a lot of mouths to feed, and this parlay will be banking on the ball going elsewhere more in Week 2 than it did in Week 1.
Drake London Anytime TD (+165)
Probably the biggest letdown for Atlanta in Week 1 was London. He was being drafted somewhere around the 1/2 turn in fantasy drafts this offseason but saw just three targets in Week 1.
We've already seen some positive regression from a player in a similar spot (Marvin Harrison Jr.) in Week 2. The lesson continues to be that our priors heading into the season are more important than a one-week sample size.
I went with London's anytime TD instead of his yardage over of 55.5 for the better odds. If you wanted to split your bets between a bigger swing and a slightly more reasonable option, going with his yardage props works out to +950 total odds.
This one as constructed is a bit juicier at +1300 though, so that's what I'm going with.
Full Falcons vs. Eagles Parlay Odds: +1300 | $10 Bet Wins $130
