How Justin Herbert Injury Affects Chargers Odds, Spread

How Justin Herbert Injury Affects Chargers Odds, Spread article feature image
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Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Herbert

Chargers franchise quarterback Justin Herbert has suffered a foot injury, but the team announced that he is still on track to start the regular season.

Herbert suffered an injury to the plantar fascia in his right foot after a practice on Wednesday. The team said he would wear a boot for two weeks and gradually return to play.

The news of Herbert's injury didn't change the Chargers' futures odds at all. They're still +3500 to win the Super Bowl at Caesars, ranked No. 15 in the NFL. AFC West and "to make the playoff" markets also remained unchanged.

If Herbert is to miss time, however, those odds will fall correspondingly. And so would the Chargers' odds on a game-to-game basis.

My colleague and data guru Sean Koerner estimates that the drop off from Herbert to Easton Stick is roughly 4.5 to 5 points per game. Meaning, if the Chargers had been a pick 'em with Herbert at the helm, expect them to be +4.5 or +5 if he's out.

Stick filled in for Herbert in five games in 2023 — all losses.

For the Chargers, it's another injury in a long list of them for their franchise quarterback — but he has a history of playing through them admirably.

Last season, he fractured two fingers at two separate parts of the season and missed four games. In 2023, he suffered a torn labrum but played through the injury — including during a wild playoff loss to the Jaguars despite being up 27-0.

And in 2022, Herbert fractured his rib but missed only one play.

About the Author
Avery Yang is an editor at the Action Network who focuses on breaking news across the sports world and betting algorithms that try to predict eventual outcomes. He is also Darren Rovell's editor. Avery is a recent graduate from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism. He has written for the Washington Post, the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, (the old) Deadspin, MLB.com and others.

Follow Avery Yang @avery_yang on Twitter/X.

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