Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon represent the most popular NFL player prop bets for Sunday's wild card round tilt: Ravens vs. Bengals.
These three had led the way as the most popular prop bet selections for the two teams' season finale last week, which saw a Cincinnati win lock down the No. 3 seed.
The question is, though: Is there value on those most popular props?
Our premier data analytics expert Nick Giffen assessed that question for these most popular picks, which primarily target the anytime TD marketplace.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Ravens vs. Bengals Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- Ja'Marr Chase to score a TD anytime (-105)
- Joe Mixon to score a TD anytime (-115)
- Joe Burrow to rush for under 15.5 rushing yards (-140)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Friday morning.
Burrow's rushing yard prop is the most valuable on this list, by far. While the market indicates he'll rush for a median of 15.5, our algorithms indicate the fair value line should be somewhere around 10 yards.
That gives this line a roughly 10% betting edge. Effectively, you'll be receiving a 10% discount relative to its market price.
Another way to think about it: you're accumulating 10% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're guaranteed to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
Keep in mind, too, that this is a high variance line due to the low total.
Mixon's anytime TD line also has a betting edge — at BetRivers, though. There, they price the prop at +104. The fair value line for Mixon to get into the end zone on Sunday is -105, giving that pick a 2% betting edge.
Meanwhile, Chase's anytime TD prop isn't fair value across the market. His fair price line is +107. The best price you'll get is at BetMGM at +100.
