Jets vs Packers Odds & Picks | NFL Week 6

Jets vs. Packers Odds

Sunday, Oct. 16

1 p.m. ET

FOX

This is absolutely one of the more interesting matchups on the board this week.

There's a ton of talk about last week's London game. Green Bay had a solid lead going into the half, yet the Giants completely outplayed the Pack in the second half to truly stun Aaron Rodgers as 8-point underdogs.

One of the more fascinating trends for pundits to analyze is the game after a trip to London. At this point, there is nothing discernible given the lack of sample size. However, trends indicate that some sort of hangover exists, and logically we can assume the same.

That said, how are the New York Football Jets going to fare against the Green Bay Packers off a loss? Robert Salah's squad comes into the game off of two wins as a 3.5-point 'dog, firing off 40 points last week against the Miami Dolphins.

Will the upward trajectory continue, or can Green Bay get back on track after a disappointing trip to London? Let's dig in.

Jets vs. Packers Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Jets and Packers match up statistically:

Jets vs. Packers DVOA Breakdown

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	21	23
Pass DVOA	19	11
Rush DVOA	14	30

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	8	21
Pass DVOA	13	23
Rush DVOA	3	19

This week will answer a lot of questions about both of these teams. Are the New York Jets legit? Can Green Bay bounce back after getting torn up by the Giants and regain their Super Bowl-hopeful trajectory?

Let's look at how each team is functioning in games right now.

The Jets have a difficult team evaluation given that Joe Flacco started the first three games, but they have two wins since Zach Wilson returned. These games, though, were a little bit suspect as they played against the Steelers, who are lost and trying to find their way, as well as the Dolphins, who had Skylar Thompson under center.

New York looked good against Miami, putting up 40 points and performing on both sides of the ball. Wilson did not look good in Pittsburgh until the last drive of the game, when he put together a game-winner.

Overall, while I hold out hope for this young squad with a lot of weapons, statistically the Jets are not there yet. Their DVOA is 17, but their DAVE points to a certain level of regression.

Green Bay is a fun team to talk about. The Packers have the best quarterback in the league, who now likes to make some noise in the media, but is still yearning for that second Super Bowl victory. His squad really should have gone further in the playoffs last season, losing an abysmal game to the 49ers at home thanks to some awful special teams performances. Green Bay also lost the best receiver in the game, and its passing game to date has reflected that.

While Rodgers and his receivers have not yet truly clicked, the running game remains intact, operating at a high level with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. The Packers can easily control the game with these two players and open up the passing game when needed.

Expectations are high for the Packers, yet they have underachieved to date. They were smoked by the Vikings in Week 1 (we had the Vikings) and just lost to the Giants in London. Green Bay's three wins came against the Bears, Bucs and Patriots, with the latter two ending up as a difference of a field goal or less.

We haven't seen much to impress, as Green Bay barely covered against Chicago (the Bears did their favorite turnover with goal to go), had another goal line stand vs. Tampa Bay and won by three against the Zappe-led Patriots.

That said, the Packers still have a high ceiling and offensive prowess. The Jets have done one thing this year: underperform against good teams. They lost and did not cover against Baltimore and Cincinnati, where they were close to touchdown underdogs in both contests.

Green Bay off of a loss is an enticing bet. However, we do see certain trends appear off of London games in regards to the total.

Betting Picks

While I am not hopeful for the Jets this weekend, I am not going to play the side unless it gets to 6.5. In that case, I would absolutely bet the Packers. That spread would simply be below long-term expectations for both teams and hits below the key number.

We do see key trends for these Jets and Packers teams to date that pave the way for a play on the total. While the Jets do have incredibly solid corners in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, their safeties wildly underperform, leaving their pass defense susceptible to a high-powered offense like Green Bay's.

One of the key trends coming out of London games shows that defenses largely underperform, and the opposing team can put up points. This is limited in sample but logically makes sense. We've seen the Jets score 20 or more the past two weeks. Granted those performances were against poor teams, but the Packers defense thus far is nothing to brag about.

I expect Rodgers to come out firing and put up a show while the Jets hang in there to get this total over. I'll be taking over 45.5 and betting it up to 46, with a strong lean on Green Bay at 7.5.

Quickslip: Over 45.5(Bet to 46) | Lean Packers -7.5