Monday Night Football's Bengals vs. Browns matchup features a player prop edge that gleans roughly 20% of betting value.
That indicates you're making 20 cents for every dollar wagered over the long run by wagering on this prop bet on Joe Burrow's rushing yards total.
There had also been a line targeted by experts that had a roughly 23% betting edge — Kareem Hunt to carry the ball for eight or fewer times. That line is now off the board across the market.
In fact, Hunt's rushing yard prop is off the market at most books, too, after my colleague Sean Koerner made it his favorite player prop pick for MNF.
The only books that have Hunt's rushing yard total live are DraftKings and Caesars, albeit at a much steeper vig when compared to open. A variant of the line is available at BetMGM as under 51.5 receiving and rushing yards (-120).
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Bengals vs. Browns Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets
- Joe Burrow to rush for under 16.5 yards -115 (BetMGM)
- Kareem Hunt to record fewer than 34.5 rushing yards -135 (DraftKings)
- Joe Mixon under 17.5 rush attempts +100 (BetMGM)
*Odds and data are as of Monday morning. These are the market's best prices.
The most valuable prop for Monday Night Football's Bengals vs. Browns is on Joe Burrow to rush for fewer than 16.5 yards. Our predictive analytic models indicate this line should be priced closer to 13, which gives this line about 20% of betting value.
And as aforementioned, Hunt's rushing prop at under 34.5 rushing yards is still valuable, even at a -135 vig.
You'll still be able to glean value with MGM's line at under 51.5 receiving and rushing yards, too. DraftKings also has a line up under the market "longest rush," in which Hunt's total is 11.5. While Hunt may only see four to six rushes tonight, that bet in particular is inherently more variant.
Meanwhile, the third-most valuable prop tonight is for Joe Mixon to rush 17 or fewer times.
Our models project he'll rush 16.4 times, meaning his current vig of +100 at BetMGM provides about a 12% edge in expected value.
