Lions vs 49ers Props: Sam LaPorta
On Monday morning, the first anytime touchdown scorer I bet for the NFL conference championships was Sam LaPorta.
The rookie led all tight ends in touchdowns during the regular season and was fifth in receiving yards. His success was unprecedented for a first-year player at the position.
So far in the playoffs, LaPorta has 12 catches and one touchdown in the Lions' two wins. In those games, he has seen five targets in the red zone.
The 49ers defense is strong, but it can be passed on. The secondary has looked weaker than it did early in the regular season and is overrated at this point. San Francisco gave up two passing touchdowns to the Packers, including one to tight end Tucker Kraft.
The Lions' passing attack has dropped off when playing outdoors, but I like my chances for Jared Goff to throw for touchdowns this week if Detroit is facing a trailing game script. Also, the forecast for Santa Clara looks clear and sunny with temperatures in the high 60s and minimal wind.
Last week against the Buccaneers, LaPorta closed at +165 and I had expected odds at +175. This week against the 49ers in what is a much better matchup for him, anything above +200 is good value for a player whose ATD odds haven't been higher than +200 since Week 10.
The only factor that gives me pause is that LaPorta has scored just one of his 10 touchdowns on the road. Another angle to consider: Laporta has scored all but one of his touchdowns this season in the first half.
The only sportsbooks still hanging a number higher than +200 are bet365 (+220) and ESPN Bet (+215), where LaPorta is +220 to score a touchdown against the 49ers as of 1:30 p.m. ET.
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Pick: Sam LaPorta ATD +220
