Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 4.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
After three weeks, the Pittsburgh Steelers are atop the Luck Rankings, having moved ahead of the Buccaneers, who remain in second place. The Philadelphia Eagles fell from the top spot to third in this week's edition.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Last week, unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — went 3-1 against the spread (ATS). Overall, that moves unlucky teams to 103-58-6 (63.5%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 4.
NFL Week 4 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42.41% | |
| 2 | 37.39% | |
| 3 | 28.29% | |
| 4 | 25.32% | |
| 5 | 24.91% | |
| 6 | 24.15% | |
| 7 | 21.07% | |
| 8 | 20.20% | |
| 9 | 18.06% | |
| 10 | 9.01% | |
| 11 | 7.43% | |
| 12 | 7.42% | |
| 13 | 7.28% | |
| 14 | 7.23% | |
| 15 | 3.87% | |
| 16 | 1.89% | |
| 17 | 1.06% | |
| 18 | 0.02% | |
| 19 | -0.35% | |
| 20 | -3.84% | |
| 21 | -4.86% | |
| 22 | -11.78% | |
| 23 | -12% | |
| 24 | -17.58% | |
| 25 | -17.69% | |
| 26 | -20.66% | |
| 27 | -24.43% | |
| 28 | -24.51% | |
| 29 | -28.62% | |
| 30 | -33.1% | |
| 31 | -37.24% | |
| 32 | -48.32% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers rose from eighth to first on the heels of a win over the Raiders that probably should have been a loss.
Calvin Austin's 72-yard TD was the 114th-highest offensive play by expected points added out of over 277,000 offensive plays since the start of 2015. Combine that with Pittsburgh's fortunate Week 2 win over Cleveland, and you'll see why Mike Tomlin's squad is the luckiest in the NFL by winning percentage heading into Week 4.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After a lucky win over Minnesota and a 10-point win against the Bears that played more like a one-score game, the Buccaneers finally lost their first game of the year, getting thoroughly manhandled by the Eagles on Monday Night Football. The 25-11 scoreline was not reflective of true performance, as our Expected Score metric makes this more like a 35-13 outcome in favor of the Eagles.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
Speaking of the Eagles, after beating then-fellow top-two Luck Ranking opponent Tampa Bay, the Eagles move off the top line and into third this week. Philly's Week 1 win still looms large since it was outplayed by the Patriots. A week later, the Eagles recovered all five of the game's fumbles — four by the Vikings and one of their own in a one-score win.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. New England Patriots
The Patriots were victorious against the Jets in an ugly Week 3 game. That lifts them off the bottom spot as the unluckiest team, but they remain low down in the Luck Rankings thanks to two one-score one-score losses. Especially important in this is the Week 1 loss to the Eagles, against whom the Patriots outplayed the 3-0 team from the NFC East.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
After topping the Bad Beat Rankings in Week 2, the Jaguars backed that up by topping the Bad Beat Rankings again in Week 3. Two straight weeks of having the worst luck will put you in the season-long bottom three after just three weeks.
32. Minnesota Vikings
Last year's luckiest team, which had an 11-0 record in one-score games in 2022, has started 2023 with three one-score losses.
Two of those should have been wins according to our Expected Score metric. The first was a Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay. The second came just this past weekend, when the Vikings suffered the third-worst beat of the week, according to our Bad Beat Rankings.
