Michael Pittman Receiving Yards
| Prop | Under 64.5 Receiving Yards |
| Matchup | Colts vs. Broncos |
| Day, Time | Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
Pittman only managed three catches for 31 yards last week, despite the fact he had an easy matchup against the Titans. Also, Matt Ryan threw for 356 yards, but Pittman still didn't see much action.
This week, Pittman has a much tougher matchup against Ronald Darby and Patrick Surtain. The Broncos blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, and Pittman's yards per target average goes from 8.48 when the opposing defense sends four or fewer rushers to 6.57 against the blitz.
The Colts will be more pass-heavy without Jonathan Taylor, but that also means we'll see more Nyheim Hines. I expect Ryan to rely on Hines quite a bit, as well as his tight end trio of Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson and Jelani Woods.
Slot receiver Alec Pierce has also come on more over the past two weeks, seeing a target on 30% of his routes run over the last two weeks.
Pittman also isn't seeing the same number of targets down the field. He has a very low 6.5 Average Depth of Target this season, which indicates that Ryan hasn't been taking as many shots down the field.
With Ryan spreading the ball around tonight, it makes it tougher for Pittman to clear this total. I have his median closer to 57.5 against the Broncos.
