The New England Patriots (3-11) and Buffalo Bills (11-3) will face off in NFL Week 16. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. The game will be broadcast live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+.
Patriots vs Bills odds have the Bills as heavy -1600 moneyline favorites and Patriots as +900 underdogs. The over/under is 48.5 points (-110/-110). The Bills are 14-point favorites on the spread over the Patriots (-14).
Let's get into my Bills vs Patriots predictions and picks.
Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Best Bet
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+14 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +900 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-14 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -1600 |
- Patriots vs. Bills spread: Patriots +14 (-105), Bills -14 (-115)
- Patriots vs. Bills over/under: 48.5 (-110/-110)
- Patriots vs. Bills moneyline: Patriots +900, Bills -1600
- Patriots vs. Bills best bet: Bills -14
MyPatriots vs. Bills best bet is on the Bills to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
It's a big spread, but I like the Bills to cover at -14.
I'll outline below why I'm not deterred by the fact that this is a late-season rivalry game.
Moneyline
There's absolutely no value on the Bills' moneyline in this spot.
Over/Under
We know the Bills will put up points, but will the Patriots?
Either way, I have no play on the over/under.
My Pick: Bills -14
Patriots vs. Bills NFL Week 16 Preview
I just don't see how Patriots keep this close.
I know it's a divisional game, but when the Bills have won this year, it's usually by blowout. Case in point: They are +17.3 in terms of average victory margin at home this season.
The Patriots are three points worse on the road than they've been at home. When you start to get to these extremes, you know you don't really like to go past 14, 17 points if you're a book. We saw it with the Giants–Ravens game last week with Baltimore on the road.
The good news with New England is that rookie Draye Maye looks quite promising. The bad news is they can't protect Maye whatsoever, an issue compounded by the fact that their offensive skill players can't create anything outside of what he creates for them.
Defensively, the Pats can't stop the run and they're not great against the pass, either. There's a lack of creativity on this side of the ball that you have to point at the coaching staff. They don't seem to have anything that gives them an edge.
Buffalo's been battling injuries on both sides of the ball this year, but against New England, the impact of that is minimized.
The Bills are just rolling right now, putting up 30-plus points every week as Josh Allen continues his MVP run. It's difficult to envision the Patriots keeping up despite this being a late-season rivalry game.
I think this spread would be even bigger if the Bills hadn't allowed 40 points in back-to-back weeks to the Rams and Lions. The Patriots, obviously, don't have close to the firepower those two teams have.
My Pick: Bills -14
Patriots vs. Bills Betting Trends
Patriots vs Bills Inactives
Patriots
- RB Jamycal Hasty
- CB Marcus Jones
- QB Joe Milton
- S Jabrill Peppers
- G Tyrese Robinson
- G Lecitus Smith
Bills
- WR Curtis Samuel
- OT Tylan Grable
- DT DeWayne Carter
- LB Matt Milano
- CB Rasul Douglas
- S Taylor Rapp
- S Damar Hamlin
