The New England Patriots (3-11) and Buffalo Bills (11-3) will face off in NFL Week 16. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. The game will be broadcast live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+.
The Bills are favored by 14 points over the Patriots with the game total set at 46.5 points scored. The Bills are -1000 favorites to win outright, while the Patriots are +650 to pull off the upset.
Buffalo is coming off an impressive road victory over the Detroit Lions in what was a potential Super Bowl preview. Josh Allen was absurd once again, throwing for 362 yards and two touchdowns while adding 68 rushing yards and another two touchdowns. The Patriots enter this contest on a four-game losing streak. Rookie Drake Maye continues to look promising; New England is otherwise uninspiring overall.
Let's get into my Bills vs Patriots predictions and NFL picks.
Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
- Patriots vs. Bills spread: Bills -14
- Patriots vs. Bills over/under: 46.5 points scored
- Patriots vs. Bills moneyline: Bills -1000, Patriots +650
- Patriots vs. Bills best bet: Bills -14
MyPatriots vs. Bills best bet is on the Bills to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
It's a big spread, but I like the Bills to cover at -14.
I'll outline below why I'm not deterred by the fact that this is a late-season rivalry game.
Moneyline
There's absolutely no value on the Bills' moneyline in this spot.
Over/Under
We know the Bills will put up points, but will the Patriots?
Either way, I have no play on the over/under.
My Pick: Bills -14
Patriots vs. Bills NFL Week 16 Preview
I just don't see how Patriots keep this close.
I know it's a divisional game, but when the Bills have won this year, it's usually by blowout. Case in point: They are +17.3 in terms of average victory margin at home this season.
The Patriots are three points worse on the road than they've been at home. When you start to get to these extremes, you know you don't really like to go past 14, 17 points if you're a book. We saw it with the Giants–Ravens game last week with Baltimore on the road.
The good news with New England is that rookie Draye Maye looks quite promising. The bad news is they can't protect Maye whatsoever, an issue compounded by the fact that their offensive skill players can't create anything outside of what he creates for them.
Defensively, the Pats can't stop the run and they're not great against the pass, either. There's a lack of creativity on this side of the ball that you have to point at the coaching staff. They don't seem to have anything that gives them an edge.
Buffalo's been battling injuries on both sides of the ball this year, but against New England, the impact of that is minimized.
The Bills are just rolling right now, putting up 30-plus points every week as Josh Allen continues his MVP run. It's difficult to envision the Patriots keeping up despite this being a late-season rivalry game.
I think this spread would be even bigger if the Bills hadn't allowed 40 points in back-to-back weeks to the Rams and Lions. The Patriots, obviously, don't have close to the firepower those two teams have.
My Pick: Bills -14
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