Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals his favorite NFL props for the Week 13 edition of Monday Night Football featuring the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. He has a 488-379-9 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
NFL Props: Patriots-Bills
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 41.5 Rush Yards
The weather forecast for tonight's game calls for some potential snow, but more importantly, strong winds of 25+ mph are expected. As a result, both teams will likely lean on the run game more tonight. Stevenson has been splitting time with Damien Harris, but both backs would benefit from increased volume tonight.
Facing the Bills (ranked fourth in Football Outsiders' DVOA against the run) is no easy task, but Stevenson has played well enough to overcome a difficult matchup. His 0.53 rushing yards over expected per attempt rank seventh among qualified backs this year, per Next Gen Stats.
Stevenson has a 3.5 efficiency score, per Next Gen Stats, which means he ranks the ninth-highest in terms of being a North/South type of runner. I believe this is a trait that would benefit him if there is any snow or the field is a bit slicker. I'm projecting him closer to 48.5 rush yards for this market and would bet it up to 43.5.
Pick: Over 41.5 Rush Yards (-110) at FanDuel
Emmanuel Sanders Under 3.5 Receptions
Sanders is a pass catcher who gets a downgrade due to the expected high winds for tonight's game. His 16.1 aDot (average depth of target) is the highest of all Bills pass catchers and I'm expecting Allen to attempt fewer downfield throws at Sanders' expense.
Look for players like Cole Beasley (5.8 aDot) and Dawson Knox (8.0 aDot) to see a higher target share tonight. I'm projecting Sanders closer to 2.8 receptions and a 69% chance of going under 3.5. Therefore, I'm ok eating -160 of juice, considering I think a fair line for this would be closer to -220.
I would bet this down to -180
Pick: Under 3.5 Receptions (-160) at DraftKings
