Week 9 wraps up with the Chargers traveling east to take on the New York Jets. The Chargers are 3-4 and looking to get back to .500 against the surprising Jets, who've managed to keep the ship afloat without Aaron Rodgers.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 9
Chargers at Jets: Overs With a Chargers Lead, Unders With a Jets Lead
With just a 3.5-point spread, either team going up by multiple scores isn't especially likely. If one team does, though, it's more likely to be the favored Chargers.
On top of being more likely, this scenario also provides us with more information on how either team is likely to play, based on more robust sample sizes. The Chargers have run 69 offensive plays when leading by eight or more, and rank eighth in pace in those situations. They'd probably rank a bit higher, but the Falcons (five plays) and Panthers (none) have unreasonably low averages thanks to their tiny samples.
On the other hand, the Jets have spent plenty of time trailing by multiple scores. Across 139 plays, they've been just a hair slower than league-average. All told, they combine to play a bit more than two seconds per play faster than expected in this situation.
Importantly, this would also put both defenses on the back foot. The Jets have a borderline elite pass defense but struggle against the run, while the Chargers are better against the run. We'll get into the details of those numbers shortly, but it's a good sign for this angle.
The under scenario is a bit trickier, thanks to some sample size issues from both teams. The Jets have run just four offensive plays this season when leading by seven or more. Their average seconds per snap of 43.5 is higher than the 40-second play clock, which means those plays have probably all been kneel-downs and there was a defensive penalty on one of them that allowed more than 40 seconds to come off the clock.
On the Chargers side, despite their 3-4 record, they've run just nine plays when trailing by multiple scores. They've played fast in that scenario, but given the sample it's hard to draw any firm conclusions from it.
However, the Jets feature a stout pass defense while struggling against the run. They rank third in yards allowed per pass, and 22nd per rush. On the other hand, the Chargers rank 10th in yards allowed per rush, but 29th per pass. That means we should see less efficient offensive play with the Chargers throwing more and the Jets running more, which we'd expect with a Jets lead.
Beyond that, this stat from Action Network research director Evan Abrams has shifted my thinking about live betting a bit. This season, second half unders are 81-53, and over the last two years they are 232-175. That refers to the pregame second half total, of course, but it's a good indication that something is going on league-wide. Either defenses are adapting better at halftime than offenses, or offenses are playing more conservatively in the second half.
Either way, that's a strong enough trend that we want to view unders as the "default" live bet in or around half time, unless something pushes us in the other direction.
With both scenarios, we'll be rooting for some movement from the pregame total of 41 — but especially if taking the over. You can catch my expanded thoughts on the matter at halftime, as I go live with Nick Giffen on "Bet What Happens Live" around the two-minute warning of the game.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and games that are faster or slower than expected create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
