Our Action Network Luck Rankings have gotten off to a hot start in 2022 ahead of Week 8 despite a bump in the road in Week 7.
Last week, the unlucky team in our luck rankings went 5-9 against the spread (ATS) overall when looking at closing lines. That includes a 2-6 record ATS when there was a luck ranking difference of 10 or more places.
Despite that Week 7 blip, the unlucky team from the Action Network Luck Rankings are 45-31 (59.2%) against the spread (ATS) overall. That jumps to 25-14 (64.1%) when teams differ by at least 10 places and 15-6 (71.4%) when the difference is 16 or more since we started tracking in Week 3.
Here are the matchups we're targeting for Week 8.
NFL Luck Rankings – Week 8 Notable Games
Each team's luck ranking is in parenthesis.
Nick Giffen: The Houston Texans come into Week 8 as the team with the biggest Luck Gap to its opponent.
The 45.4% Luck Gap is significant because unlucky teams with at least a 40% Luck Gap to their opponent are 12-3 ATS since we started tracking in Week 3.
The public also seems to be backing the Titans here, with 67% of tickets on Tennessee. However, the bigger and sharper money is coming in on Houston as only 53% of the money is on the Titans.
Houston just barely missed making the top three of our Bad Beat Rankings from Week 7, coming in fourth. The Texans played Las Vegas to what should have been a 50/50 game if not for a missed field goal, late pick-six and long drive ending on downs inside the red zone.
That recency bias is probably playing into the public's mind here.
Sean Koerner: Detroit comes in as the largest luck ranking differential, 21 places lower than the Minnesota Vikings.
Like Houston, the Lions were unlucky last week, losing a fumble inside the 1-yard line. They also lost star player Amon-Ra St. Brown early in the game, but he is set to feature in Week 8.
The public perception could be off here with 67% of the action is on Miami, which is 3-1 in one possession games, including 1-0 in games decided by a field goal or less.
Nick Giffen: While this game is pretty low on the totem pole compared to other Week 8 games in terms of luck ranking difference or even Luck Gap, there's still enough going on here to back the Cardinals.
Minnesota has been a lucky 5-1 team, with four wins coming by a single possession.
Meanwhile, Arizona is nearly smack dab in the middle of the luck rankings showing they have truly played like the 3-4 team they are.
As PJ Walsh points out, our PRO Projections have Arizona as 2.8-point underdogs, contributing to four of five signals lighting up in our PRO Report.
The only signal that isn't lit up is a betting system, but Arizona fits our newest betting system — the Luck Rankings!
