Since the dawn of betting, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay for Browns vs. Broncos on Monday Night Football this week.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Weeks 6 and 10, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Monday Night Football parlay for Week 13 on FanDuel.
Browns vs. Broncos Parlay for Monday Night Football
- Broncos -5.5 (-115)
- Under 42.5 (-115)
- Nick Chubb Anytime Touchdown (+165)
Browns vs. Broncos Parlay Odds: +1423 | $10 Bet Wins $142.30
Leg 1: Broncos -5.5 (-115)
I don't truly love the spread (in either direction) in this game. The Broncos are clearly the better team but aren't an especially explosive offense. That makes it hard to trust them to cover big spreads.
On the other hand, Jameis Winston has started four games for the Browns. Those have included two upsets over much better teams and two blowout losses in which Winston took nine sacks and threw three interceptions combined.
What I do love is off lines. Most major sportsbooks have moved all the way up to -6 for the Broncos, but not FanDuel. They're hanging a -5.5 line at the time of writing. That's a big deal considering six is a key number, so let's hit the easy button to start our build.
Leg 2: Under 42.5 (-115)
Just like with the spread, the thesis of this one is FanDuel giving us an extra half-point off a key number.
The rest of the industry is holding firm at 42 for the total, while FanDuel is giving us 42.5. It's not the most exciting pick, but I'll take the easy option when it's there.
We're also building in a bit of correlation here, as both the under and the Broncos covering would be helped by "Bad Jameis" showing up this week. I'm not especially confident that's what will happen, but it's helpful to build around a coherent narrative.
Leg 3: Nick Chubb Anytime Touchdown (+165)
Our anytime touchdown projections are showing edges on a handful of players. Given the setup here, I wanted to include a piece from the Browns, knowing that we'll get a massive boost to the parlay odds since we're also taking the Broncos and the under.
Since the thesis on those picks (outside of one book having a bad line) is that Winston doesn't play well, it makes the most sense to go with a Browns running back for the anytime TD prop.
I almost went with Jerome Ford, who we're projecting a slightly bigger edge on and would take the total parlay odds well past 50-1. However, Chubb is far more likely to score, so let's take the more obvious route.
This brings the parlay odds to a solid +1423 — though I might sprinkle a couple bucks on the Jerome Ford version as well.
Browns vs. Broncos Parlay Odds: +1423 | $10 Bet Wins $142.30
