PropBetGuy will break down his favorite NFL player props every week throughout this season, and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
So, let's get right into his NFL player prop parlay for Monday Night Football, which includes picks for Trey McBride and Lamar Jackson.
NFL Player Prop Parlay
- Trey McBride 5+ Receptions
- Lamar Jackson 40+ Rushing Yards
Parlay Odds: +122 at FanDuel
Despite all of the preseason discourse surrounding rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., McBride leads the Cardinals in both targets and receptions, despite missing one game.
The third year tight-end has grabbed at least five catches in four of his five games this season, and in 13 of his past 13 contests started by quarterback Kyler Murray, dating back to last season.
And tonight, McBride gets a solid spot against a Chargers defense that’s allowed a lot of volume to opposing tight ends. Los Angeles is allowing both the second-most catches per game to the position (6.4) and the second-highest target share (26.8%).
Travis Kelce (seven catches) and Brock Bowers (six) both flourished in this matchup as the Chargers employ a two-high safety look at the third-highest rate in the NFL, per Fantasy Points Data. This should allow McBride, who leads all tight ends in target rate (25.7%) and first-read rate (27.6%), to command volume over the middle of the field.
The easy analysis here is that Jackson has cleared this alt line in each of his six games this season. However, when you dig deeper into the matchup, you see it’s a sneaky spot for Jackson to rack up the rushing yards.
The Bucs rush defense is tough up the middle, where it is anchored by defensive tackle Vita Vea. However, teams have been able to exploit Tampa’s defense around the edge.
Per Pro Football Focus, Jackson has 28 designed rushes for 214 yards around the edge. At 7.6 yards per carry, he’s easily cleared his output from the past two seasons (6.2 and 5.8). This is undoubtedly due to the Derrick Henry effect, with defenses having to key in on the NFL’s leading rusher.
With the Bucs being strong up the middle, I wouldn’t be shocked if Jackson kept the ball a bit more tonight. Toss in some scramble opportunities (which the Bucs have also struggled to defend), and Jackson should be able to pad his rushing stats.
