I've found my NFL player props for both Monday Night Football matchups tonight.
In Ravens vs. Buccaneers, I'm fading an inefficient running back whose role is dwindling in an effective Tampa Bay offense. For game two, Chargers vs. Cardinals, I'm on a tackles prop for a safety who I don't expect to be very involved tonight.
Let's get into my NFL props for tonight.
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NFL Player Prop Picks: Rachaad White & Alohi Gilman
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Player Prop: Rachaad White
I saw Rachaad White's rushing yards prop open at 34.5 and knew there was a 0% chance it would be above 30 by the time today rolled around. It's all the way down to 25.5 at some sportsbooks.
I think the under on his rush attempts is the we to fade him tonight.
The Buccaneers will face a clear pass-funnel defense in the Ravens that ranks 21st in DVOA against the pass but third against the run. This sets up for a Buccaneers offense that already leans pass-heavy.
White is coming back from a foot injury to forced him to miss Week 6, so he might not be 100%.
Also, importantly, there might be a full-blown three-way committee in the Buccaneers backfield right now. Bucky Irving has outplayed White all season, and Sean Tucker broke out with more than 130 rushing yards en route to finishing as the highest-scoring running back in fantasy. Tucker only went undrafted out of Syracuse due to medical concerns, but he had the talent to be a potential mid-round pick, so I'm not shocked he’s making noise now.
The Buccaneers coaching staff said it would ride the hot hand, which makes this a very murky situation and only lowers White’s floor further. He's struggled to clear 9.5 rush attempts in his last two games, which was in a two-way committee with Irving in more run-heavy game scripts. Now, he has more competition for touches and is facing a pass-funnel defense.
I'm projecting white closer to 6.9 rush attempts with around a 60% chance to stay under 7.5.
Chargers vs. Cardinals Player Prop: Alohi Gilman
Alohi Gilman is coming off a 10-tackle game against the Broncos, but that's the best possible matchup for safeties like Gilman. Denver is allowing more than five tackles above the NFL average to his position, while the Cardinals rank in the middle of the pack.
Gilman tends to play deep safety most of the time (92% rate last week), but he played in the box at a much higher rate in Week 4 with Derwin James serving his one-game suspension. Because Gilman tends to play deep safety, it’s tougher for him to see a ton of tackle opportunities. He’s not too involved in run plays, and I think we see a higher number of RB carries this game than the Chargers have typically faced so far this season.
Gilman will need big plays down the field (Kyler Murray doesn’t throw down field much), so most of his tackles could come from a deep ball to Marvin Harrison Jr. or someone like Trey McBride sneaking loose for a gain of 15 or more yards.
I’m projecting Gilman to get a handful of tackles on plays like that, but I have him pegged for closer to 4.9 tackles + assists tonight with around a 59% chance he stays under 5.5.
