I've found my NFL player prop pick for Monday Night Football tonight.
For Buccaneers vs. Chiefs, I'm fading a wide receiver who doesn't have a huge role in the Kansas City passing game. Let's get into my NFL prop for tonight.
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NFL Player Prop Pick
DeAndre Hopkins only ran a route on 33% of Patrick Mahomes dropbacks in his Chiefs debut last week. We could see that double tonight, and I think the player most impacted would be Justin Watson.
Watson already struggles to draw targets with a 7% target rate on the season, so a dip in playing time would only lower his floor more. He’s also due for negative catch regression with an 83% catch rate but 76% expected.
Watson isn't seeing as many deep shots this season, so he may be able to stay under this even if he gets one or two receptions. Plus, we could see a ton of rain tonight, which probably hurts Watson the most.
Finally, the Bucs blitz at an above-average rate, and Watson has only seen one target against the blitz all season.
I'm projecting Watson's median closer to 15.5 with around a 60% chance to stay under 18.5. Have him staying under 1.5 rec 59% of the time, so that’s a pivot at +100.
If Watson's receiving yards market moves to 17.5, I would pivot to the under on 1.5 receptions.
