Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every primetime game throughout the 2021 season. He has a 443-338-7 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
NFL Player Props: Giants-Chiefs
Darrel Williams Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (+100)
Rushing props like this one come down to expected game flow and how we can project a team to distribute its rushing attempts.
Williams benefits from both factors tonight.
Williams has taken over as the Chiefs' lead back over the past two games in place of the injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Williams has averaged 84% of the non-QB rush attempts over that two-game stretch, making him a true workhorse back, while Jerick McKinnon plays a more "change of pace" role.
I expect that to continue against the Giants, but expect the Chiefs to have a more run-friendly game script as 10.5-point favorites (check real-time NFL odds here). Based on season-to-date pass/run trends, as favorites of that size means they project for about 28 rush attempts, and I have about 16.5 of those going to Williams.
I also like the idea of attacking this market rather than his yardage prop (58.5), as I'm projecting him closer to 64.5 yards. He's averaged only 3.5 yards per rush this season, and I'm mainly betting on tonight's game script.
If the Giants get off to a 14-0 lead or win tonight's game, that would be devastating for this prop. But I think the Chiefs will bounce back tonight, see better turnover luck, and win with ease. And this Williams prop seems like the most straightforward way to invest in this script.
Pick: Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (+100) at BetMGM
