This post will be updated throughout the weekend with more of my NFL player props for Week 1, so be sure to check in periodically for the latest picks.
Jamaal Williams
Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-105, BetMGM)
Williams should be the Saints' workhorse back while Alvin Kamara serves his three-game suspension to start the regular season.
It was reported on Friday that Saints RB Kendre Miller is dealing with a hamstring injury and may not play or be limited against the Titans in Week 1. I'm guessing Williams will see even more carries as a result, especially since they don't necessarily have to "save" the veteran RB for more than 200 carries this season.
The Saints ran more than 10% more than the league average on first downs and third-and-short situations last season, both of which should see Williams on the field.
The Titans have a very good run defense, so I'm less interested in attacking his yardage total and would rather go with his attempts.
I'm projecting Williams for closer to 15.5 attempts and would bet the over on 14.5 up to about -135.
Miles Sanders
Under 15.5 Rush Attempts (-110, BetMGM)
Sanders seems to be fully recovered from a groin injury that kept him out for most of training camp, but there's a chance the Panthers limit him early in the season. We could see a few more carries from Chuba Hubbard and with D.J. Chark out, Laviska Shenault could see a few more snaps that could include some designed runs.
The Falcons are an extremely run-heavy team that played at the 28th-slowest neutral pace last season. They should be looking to bleed the clock as home favorites and limit the number of plays Carolina can run.
I'm projecting this closer to 14 and would bet under 15.5 down to -145.
Dalton Schultz
Under 3.5 Receptions (-125, FanDuel)
The Texans are down three offensive linemen, which could cause them to use more heavy personnel to protect C.J. Stroud in his NFL debut. Schultz was typically not used in those kinds of formations in the preseason.
The Ravens are also very good against opposing tight ends. Since acquiring Roquan Smith in Week 9 of last season, they held tight ends to the fifth-llowest yards allowed per coverage snap. Specifically, safety Kyle Hamilton was excellent in coverage against TEs and may match up at times against Schultz.
I'm projecting this under closer to -160.
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