Every Sunday, I reveal bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you make your NFL predictions as quickly as possible.
Here is the early NFL Divisional Round pick I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
NFL Predictions — Divisional Round Picks
Ravens vs. Bills Prediction
When these teams met in Week 4, Derrick Henry took Baltimore’s first play 87 yards to the house and the Ravens never looked back, rumbling to a dominant 35–10 victory.
This one will be in Buffalo, but I’m expecting the Ravens to prevail again.
The Ravens are just better — at just about everything. Buffalo’s offense has been great all season, but Baltimore’s has been even better. Baltimore’s defense finished the year with better metrics season long and is trending up while Buffalo is going the wrong direction.
Baltimore is better by DVOA running and throwing on both offense and defense. The Ravens have the better coaches — even their uncharacteristically weak special teams unit is better than Buffalo’s.
The Ravens scored touchdowns on their first three drives in that matchup earlier this season. This offense is a really bad matchup for Buffalo’s defense, which is not great defending the middle of the field and has struggled all season against big, power rushing attacks.
Henry finished a yard short of 200 in that one. Buffalo’s defense has also been much worse early in games compared to the Ravens, who are almost always great, setting up a script for Baltimore to get out ahead and play its game, like it did last time.
I don’t have these teams in the same weight class. Buffalo had big late-season wins over the Chiefs and Lions, but allowed 63 points in those games, and those were the only Bills' playoff wins til Sunday. Baltimore now has eight wins over playoff teams, all by at least a touchdown.
Give me Ravens +1.5, or play the +105 moneyline if you prefer. I expect the Ravens to close as favorites.
