NFL Prop Bets For Colts vs. Titans
- The Pick: Jonnu Smith Over 29.5 Rec Yards (-110)
- Bet Now: FanDuel
Titans tight end Jonnu Smith ran a season-high 84% routes run per dropback last week but managed only two catches for 32 yards and a touchdown against the Bears.
If he were to see similar usage tonight, I would project him for about 4.2 receptions. But I'm expecting his routes run to dip back into the 65% range against the Colts, which is why I'm projecting him for only 3.4 receptions. So, as you might note, I may be underestimating his usage tonight yet am still showing value on his over.
The Colts have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points against tight ends, but a lot of that has to do with the fact they haven't allowed a touchdown to the position. If you look at their schedule of opposing tight ends so far, most of said tight ends have posted reception and yardage numbers aligned with expectations, but Smith is one of the best after the catch (at any position) — he had the second-highest yards after catch over expectations last season (per NFL's NextGenStats) and ranks 10th this season.
Players who excel after the catch make me more comfortable attacking the over on their receiving yards, which is the case here.
I would bet this up to 33.5 yards, but here are the projected chances of him going over or under various yardages based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:
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