The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, will highlight his favorite prop for every primetime game throughout the 2020 NFL season.
His projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades props for every NFL slate.
Football is back, and I can't think of a better way to celebrate than by betting on a player prop involving a touchdown-dependent blocking tight end!
Darren Fells' receiving yardage under is my favorite prop for Thursday night's Texans-Chiefs season opener. DraftKings and BetMGM are offering under 23.5 yards (-124 at DraftKings, -110 at BetMGM), and I don't expect that number to last much longer — it's already as low as 19.5 yards at other books as of writing.
It's critical to make sure you get the highest possible number you have access to — every yard counts here, so if you have access to 23.5, act quickly.
Here are the chances of Fells going over/under the various lines being offered:
Fells scored a career-high seven touchdowns a year ago, but he's very much the Texans' blocking TE — out of the 721 snaps played last season, he ran a route only 44% of the time while staying in to block 56% of the time. By contrast, Jordan Akins ran a route on 61% of his snaps as the Texans' main pass-catching TE in 2019. Akins also received rave reviews in training camp, so his role could increase even more in 2020.
I also noticed a pattern that Fells tended to stay in and block more when the Texans trailed. Here were his average numbers in their wins vs. losses last season:
- Fells' receiving in wins (10 games): 3.7 targets, 2.8 receptions, 28.2 yards
- Fells' receiving in losses (5 games): 2.2 targets, 1.2 receptions, 11.8 yards
Considering the Texans are 9.5-point underdogs (find live odds here), this trend also plays towards him hitting his under tonight.
Another wrinkle thrown into this depth chart is the possibility of a third TE getting playing time.
People might have forgotten about Texans' 2019 third-round pick in Kahale Warring — he was placed on season-ending IR during camp last season due to concussion/hamstring injuries — but he's ready to rock in 2020 and could eat into both Fells' and Akins' receiving work.
PICK: Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
