Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every primetime game throughout the 2021 season. He has a 436-332-6 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
Saints-Seahawks Prop Bet
Jameis Winston Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
I'm projecting this prop to be essentially a 50/50 coin flip, so I like the fact we are getting +132 value on it here. A few things are going into my bullish projection for Winston:
- The weather tonight could be a little wet and windy, but nothing close to what we saw last night in San Fransisco. So I'm not expecting the weather to be much of a factor for this prop.
- The Saints will be getting back wideout Tre'Quan Smith tonight. It may not seem like a huge deal, but with the Saints very thin at WR, it does help that they get one of their starters back tonight.
- Seattle ranks 24th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass.
- Most importantly, Taysom Hill will be out tonight. Normally his presence suppresses Winston's passing TD projection in my model, so with him out, my projection for Winston's passing TDs has gone up.
Taysom has seen 18% of the passing drop backs and 50% of the team's rush attempts inside opponents' 10-yard line this year. His absence elevates the TD projections for all other players, but specifically Winston and Alvin Kamara.
I like the sneaky value being offered on this prop and would bet it down to +110.
Pick: Jameis Winston Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+132) at FanDuel
