Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 5.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
The Steelers top the Luck Rankings for the second week in a row, although there's a new team at the bottom.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 7-4-2 against the spread (ATS) this year. Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one threshold are 103-58-6 (63.5%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 5.
NFL Week 5 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29.73% | |
| 2 | 28.71% | |
| 3 | 27.03% | |
| 4 | 20.42% | |
| 5 | 19.55% | |
| 6 | 16.62% | |
| 7 | 13.76% | |
| 8 | 13.31% | |
| 9 | 10.79% | |
| 10 | 8.33% | |
| 11 | 8.11% | |
| 12 | 7.55% | |
| 13 | 4.21% | |
| 14 | 3.59% | |
| 15 | 1.82% | |
| 16 | -1.20% | |
| 17 | -1.46% | |
| 18 | -1.47% | |
| 19 | -1.64% | |
| 20 | -1.67% | |
| 21 | -2.50% | |
| 22 | -5.12% | |
| 23 | -7.96% | |
| 24 | -10.45% | |
| 25 | -14.78% | |
| 26 | -16.73% | |
| 27 | -18.09% | |
| 28 | -21.36% | |
| 29 | -23.35% | |
| 30 | -26.45% | |
| 31 | -31.08% | |
| 32 | -31.82% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite the Steelers' loss in Week 4, they remain atop the Luck Rankings because their 30-6 shellacking against Houston was about as expected as the scoreline reflects, meaning they weren't significantly unlucky to lose.
All but three of the Steelers' scores this year have come from one of the following:
- A defensive or special teams touchdown
- A 70-yard or longer touchdown
- A 42-yard or longer field goal
Those are unsustainable ways of scoring.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles eked out another close win helping them back up above the Buccaneers for second place. Their 4-0 record includes a 3-0 mark in one-score games.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers moved to 3-1 after handling the New Orleans Saints, 26-9. That was pretty much in line with the 26-8 Expected Score based on each team's on-field performance that powers the Luck Rankings. That lack of luck against New Orleans, combined with the Eagles' one-score win, moves Tampa Bay from second to third in this week's Luck Rankings.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Chicago Bears
The Bears suffered the third-worst beat of the week at the hands of the Denver Broncos, leaving them as one of just two winless teams alongside the Panthers. Thanks to this week's bad beat, it puts the Bears just below the Panthers in this week's Luck Rankings.
31. Minnesota Vikings
Last year's luckiest team, which had an 11-0 record in one-score games in 2022, finally picked up its first win to move them off the bottom of the Luck Rankings. However, Minnesota's three one-score losses, including two that were likely wins based on Expected Score, keep it in the bottom three.
32. Cleveland Browns
Amazingly, the Browns are 2-2 and at the bottom of the Luck Rankings. Their Week 2 loss to the Steelers was one of the unluckiest losses of the season since Pittsburgh needed two defensive scores to topple its division rival.
Through four weeks, the Browns' stellar defense has given them the lowest defensive Expected Score against, but they've actually allowed the 12th fewest points overall thanks to several bad breaks.
