NFL Odds & Picks
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Chris Raybon: Despite Geno Smith's continued strong play, the Seahawks have begun to regress to the mean, like we expected of them before the season.
Over their last three games, they are 1-2 straight up (SU) and 0-3 against the spread (ATS) despite playing middling-to-bad teams like the Bucs, Raiders and Rams. It’s been difficult for the Seahawks to separate on the scoreboard due to a struggling running game that's produced only 64.7 yards per game over the last three. This could again be an issue with Kenneth Walker III (ankle) and DeeJay Dallas (ankle) reportedly unlikely to play.
The Panthers defense matches up well against Seattle. They are 11th in EPA per play since Steve Wilks took over as the interim head coach, and they have been even better over their past three games, allowing just 12.7 points and 281.7 total yards per game.
Cornerback Jaycee Horn should be able to limit either DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. In 361 snaps in coverage this season, Horn has allowed just 17 receptions on 32 targets for 138 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions – good for a 38.3 passer rating against.
On the other side of the ball, the Panthers have been a lot better with anyone under center other than Baker Mayfield, who never seemed to feel comfortable in Ben McAdoo’s offense.
Mayfield averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt and 5.3 net yards per attempt while other Panther quarterbacks averaged 7.3 YPA and 6.6 net yards per attempt. Sam Darnold should be able to operate from a clean pocket, as the Seahawks are 22nd in pressure rate on defense (20.1%), while Carolina allows the second-lowest pressure rate (16.1%).
The Panthers run game has also fared better since trading Christian McCaffrey, averaging 143.2 yards per game. D’Onta Foreman and company should be able to take advantage of a Seahawks run defense that ranks 24th in DVOA and allows the second-most yards per game on the ground (155.3).
Per our Action Labs data, underdogs of more than a field goal with a game total of 47 or less have gone 55-32 (63%) ATS this season, covering by an average of 2.2 points per game.
Pick: Panthers +4 (to +3) |
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