Jake Elliott
Under 1.5 Field Goals Made (-120, DraftKings)
Elliot has cleared this mark just three times in 13 games this season, and there’s little reason to believe he could clear it against the Bears.
The Bears are last in defensive DVOA, so the Eagles are likely to pour in touchdowns. The numbers back that up: Chicago's opponents have attempted 27 extra points compared to just eight field goals over the last seven games.
Factor in a 15 mph crosswind with gusts up to 23 mph, and it should hurt Elliott even more. Not only does it make long kicks more difficult, but it also likely forces the Eagles to go for it on fourth down at a rate already higher than their top-six rate.
I have Elliott projected to hit this under 59.0% of the time and would bet to -125.
Ryan Succop
Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (+150, DraftKings)
Tom Brady has thrown for multiple touchdowns in just four of 13 games. Of those four, three were against bottom-half pass defenses, and none have come against top-10 pass defenses.
The Bengals rank ninth in defensive pass DVOA, so it's unlikely Brady is going to have a multi-TD passing game. Even if he does, the Bucs have gone for two at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.
The Bengals have only allowed 24 extra-point attempts all year compared to a league average of 28.9, a rate 17% below league average.
I have Succop going under 42% of the time, making +138 fair value. I wouldn't bet this at odds any shorter than +150 to allow us some wiggle room.
