Every week of the 2023 NFL season, we’ll recap how the Action Network NFL Luck Rankings fared and take a look at some of the unluckiest results in our new NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
So far in Week 3, unlucky teams in the Action Network Luck Matchups have gone 7-4-2 against the spread. Neither Monday Night Football game features a luck-based matchup, so that will be the record heading into Week 4.
We can also use Expected Scores, which power the Luck Rankings, to look at bad beats. We’re discussing bad beats not in terms of a win or loss, but in terms of win probability swing. so be sure to check out the science behind the NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
For a quick synopsis, we're looking at expected scores and comparing them to actual scores. We're not saying the team that suffered the bad beat should have won, just that the scoreline was unflattering compared to their expected performance given the game situations they encountered.
Here's a look at which teams were the unluckiest in Week 3 before heading into the Monday Night Football doubleheader.
NFL Bad Beats: Week 3
Win probability swings indicate the difference in win percentage between how teams actually performed vs. how the final score indicates they performed.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)
- Actual Result: Texans 37, Jaguars 17
- Expected Score: Texans 24, Jaguars 24
- Swing: 20 points, 40.2% win probability
The Jaguars were the unluckiest team of Week 2, and they're back at it again in Week 3.
These teams played to nearly a coin flip based off Expected Score, so the Texans winning by 20 involved a lot of lucky plays with low repeatability. Two incredibly long touchdowns by the Texans, including one off a kickoff are the starting point of low-probability plays that turned into scores.
On the Jaguars side, they missed two field goals in their first three possessions that changed the flow of the game. They then lost a fumble inside Texans territory and had another drive on Houston's side of the field end on downs.
The Jaguars outgained the Texans by nearly 40 yards and had seven more first downs. They just couldn't finish off drives while the Texans capitalized on errors and made the most of their own opportunities.
2. Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
- Actual Result: Steelers 23, Raiders 18
- Expected Score: Raiders 24, Steelers 16
- Swing: 13 points, 38.1% win probability
Everyone is talking about Josh McDaniels' decision to kick a field goal on 4th and 4 from the Steelers' 8-yard line while down by eight points. That rightly is part of why the Raiders suffered a bad beat here — but there's more under the hood.
Calvin Austin's 72-yard touchdown on 3rd and 7 was an incredible turn of events in the early going. That not only flipped the scoreboard, but also the field position game in favor of the Steelers. That singular play was worth 6.8 Expected Points Added (EPA), making it the 114th-highest single passing or rushing play in EPA out of over 277,000 overall offensive plays since the start of 2015.
The Raiders also had drives of 43, 27, 53 and 44 yards end in Pittsburgh territory, coming away with just three points on those drives — the aforementioned inexplicable field-goal call.
3. Minnesota Vikings (-0.5)
- Actual Result: Chargers 28, Vikings 24
- Expected Score: Vikings 31, Chargers 23
- Swing: 12 points, 29.1% win probability
These two teams were pretty evenly matched throughout most of the game. However, some big luck swings all happened at once near the end.
First, the Vikings failed to punch the ball in on four tries inside the Chargers' 3-yard line. Then on the ensuing possession, the Chargers went for it on 4th and 1 from their own 24-yard line and failed to convert.
That gave possession back to the Vikings just a stone's throw away from the red zone. They moved the ball to the Los Angeles 6-yard line, and on 1st and goal with 12 second left, Kirk Cousins threw an interception that sealed the game.
If the Vikings convert one of those two opportunities, it's likely we're talking about them as winners today. Instead, they're still in the running for last winless team, having lost three one-score games to start the year.
