Compared to Weeks 1-3, the NFL betting market is considerably sharper in Week 4. But that doesn't mean there are no inefficiencies to exploit.
With the help of our Action Labs tool, I've found four profitable Week 4 trends that have withstood the test of time.
NFL Week 4 Betting Trends
Week 4 Dog vs. Favorite on 1-2 Game Winning Streak
This one exploits the "starting to get on track" narrative. When a favored team enters Week 4 on a 1-2 game winning streak, it implies that the team has already lost at least once — just not in its most recent game.
Recency bias, combined with the fact that we only have three data points, makes it easy to see a trend where there is none, creating a false narrative that the team is starting to get on track and on the upswing.
Except that hans't been the case. Since 2005, favorites entering Week 4 having won one or two in a row are just 36-54 (40%) against the spread.
Dogs in this spot have beat the spread by 2.2 points per game on average. They have been most profitable when at home, boasting a 26-12 (68%) ATS record with an average cover margin of +4.5.
Six teams fit this trend in Week 4 of 2022, including four road teams:
- Cardinals at Panthers
- Titans at Colts
- Patriots at Packers
- Commanders at Cowboys
- Falcons vs. Browns
- Saints vs. Vikings (London)
Week 4 Moneyline Dog +120 to +155
Early in the season, it's easy to overestimate the discrepancy in quality between two teams. Given that luck plays such a big part in NFL games, the better team doesn't always win, anyway.
Week 4 in particular has been a profitable time to bet short dogs to not only cover, but win outright. Since 2005, Week 4 moneyline dogs in the +120 to +155 range have registered a winning record straight-up and a 24% ROI.
These dogs have been particularly profitable at home, going 13-7 (65%) with a 51% ROI.
Seven teams fit this trend in 2022, though the Ravens are the only true home team:
- Ravens vs. Bills
- Saints vs. Vikings (London)
- Titans at Colts
- Broncos at Raiders
- Bears at Giants
- Commanders at Cowboys
- Jets at Steelers
Week 4 Dog +1.5 to +2.5
If short dogs tend to win outright in Week 4, it's no surprise they also tend to cover the spread at a high rate.
Since 2005, dogs +1.5 to +2.5 have gone 23-7 (77%) ATS, beating the closing number by an average of 5.6 points per game.
This trend extends back to the start of the season, as dogs +1.5 to +2.5 have gone 77-47-1 (62%) since 2005, though it is most prevalent in Week 3 (24-16-1, 60%) and Week 4. It has been equally profitable for home teams (10-2, 83%) and road teams (13-3, 81%).
Four teams fit this trend in 2022:
- Cardinals at Panthers
- Broncos at Raiders
- Falcons vs. Browns
- Rams at 49ers
Winless Road Teams in Week 4
Historically, there has been no edge to betting winless home teams in Week 4, as they've gone 19-17 (53%) ATS since 2005. Winless road teams are an entirely different story, posting a 27-13-1 (68%) ATS record.
No teams fit this trend in 2022, but it's worth filing away for future seasons.
