Every week of the 2023 NFL season, we’ll recap how Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings fared and take a look at some of the unluckiest results in our new NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
In the only Week 5 Luck Ranking matchup, the Carolina Panthers got blown out by the Detroit Lions. As the unlucky team in that game, the Panthers failed to cover the spread, moving unlucky teams to 7-5-2 ATS in 2023 and 106-59-6 overall since 2018.
We can also use Expected Scores, which power the Luck Rankings, to look at bad beats. We’re discussing bad beats not in terms of a win or loss, but in terms of win probability swing. so be sure to check out the science behind the NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
For a quick synopsis, we're looking at expected scores and comparing them to actual scores. We're not saying the team that suffered the bad beat should have won, just that the scoreline was unflattering compared to their expected performance given the game situations they encountered.
Here's a look at which teams were unluckiest in Week 5 before heading into the Monday Night Football game between the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders.
NFL Bad Beats: Week 5
Win probability swings indicate the difference in win percentage between how teams actually performed vs. how the final score indicates they performed.
1. Baltimore Ravens (-5)
- Actual Result: Steelers 17, Ravens 10
- Expected Score: Ravens 21, Steelers 16
- Swing: 12 points, 42.9% win probability
The Ravens had two drives inside the Steelers' red zone that ended in just three points.
The first came after a 1st-and-goal from the four where the Ravens had a completion for no gain, a pass go through Mark Andrews' hands in the end zone and a pass dropped by Rashod Bateman in the end zone. They settled for a Justin Tucker field goal.
The second came late in the game with the Ravens up 10-8. Lamar Jackson threw an interception in the end zone, which was the biggest win probability swing on a single play.
In between, the Ravens failed to convert on a 4th-and-2 in field goal range, and had a blocked punt that resulted in Steelers safety.
The Steelers, the NFL's luckiest team after four weeks, should top the luck charts again after MNF.
2. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
- Actual Result: Falcons 21, Texans 19
- Expected Score: Falcons 29, Texans 18
- Swing: 9 points, 19.2% win probability
For the second straight week, the Falcons are the second-most unlucky team of the week.
The key play in this game was tight end Jonnu Smith's fumble inside the red zone after catching a 10-yard pass that would have given Atlanta a first down in a spot where a minimum of three points was the expectation.
But a hidden factor may be two first-half drives that ended in Texans territory that resulted in punts. The second was significant in making this closer on the scoreboard than each teams' actual strength in the game.
On that second drive, the Falcons had 1st and 5 from the Texans 32. In field goal range, the Falcons proceeded to push the ball to the 29 after a catch on 3rd and 7, which would have resulted in a 47-yard field goal, but a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty pushed them back out of field goal range.
3. Washington Commanders (-6)
- Actual Result: Bears 40, Commanders 20
- Expected Score: Bears 28, Commanders 20
- Swing: 8 points, 23.5% win probability
This is a situation where the bad beat didn't matter for the win or the cover, as the Commanders were clearly the worse team. However, it still matters in that this was closer to a one-score game than a 20-point blowout.
A sneaky factor in this expected score is the Bears' touchdowns. Three of the four TDs came on third down. Had any of those failed, the scoreboard would've been closer. In fact, the 21 points from those three touchdowns are nearly 10 points above the 11.3 expected from those three drives.
That includes a Justin Fields 56-yard touchdown pass to D.J. Moore with the Bears already up 10 in the fourth quarter. The Commanders defender bit on the short pass and Moore had clear sailing to run to the house.
That led to a garbage-time situation where the Commanders failed to convert on 4th and 18 from their own 17-yard line. The Bears didn't need to be successful with that gifted field position, and they weren't. However, thanks to the generous field position, they tacked on another three points that they likely never would have had.
