Packers vs Vikings Player Prop: Jordan Love
QB Jordan Love
Over 22.5 Completions (-110)
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Jordan Love has a favorable matchup as the Packers and Vikings matchup on Sunday Night Football.
The Vikings, who use zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate and blitz at the highest rate, are allowing a league-high 25.2 completions per game.
Minnesota seems to be willing to give up easy completions underneath while trying to prevent explosive plays downfield.
That brings us to Love, who is averaging 21.5 completions per game. His completion and catchable ball rates go up when facing a blitz and zone coverage, so I expect him to get the typical boost quarterbacks get in this market against Minnesota.
Additionally, Jayden Reed, who is Love's top target and has a 70% catch rate on the season, will be back for this game and I expect Green Bay to target him quite a bit.
The Packers will be without Christian Watson again, but that actually helps this prop as he’s more of a downfield threat with a 53% catch rate on the season.
I'm projecting Love closer to 24 completions (which is how many he had when these teams faced in Week 8) with around a 60% chance to clear 22.5.
