Damien Harris, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have the most popular player props for a Wild Card Round matchup between the Patriots and Bills.
It'll be the third matchup between the two squads this season.
The first was mired in 30 miles per hour gusts that kept the game low-scoring and chaotic. The Patriots won that, 14-10.
The second contest saw the Bills dominate the Patriots for four quarters — a win that solidified Buffalo's grip over the AFC East title, which it eventually won.
The advanced numbers love the Bills. Buffalo's considered the second- or third-best squad in the NFL by every major analytics metric.
That's despite the fact that they have only the seventh-best record in the NFL and third in the AFC.
And in spite of the analytics, the public is riding with the Patriots heavily. About 59% of the money is on the Patriots to win or lose by four or fewer points. The majority of the money is also on New England's moneyline.
The public is also hammering these three player props.
Patriots vs. Bills Most Popular NFL Player Props
- Damien Harris to score a touchdown at any time (+110)
- Josh Allen to score a touchdown at any time (+185)
- Stefon Diggs to score a touchdown at any time (+140)
Damien Harris has scored a touchdown in 11 out of 15 regular-season games, including 10 of his last 11. That implies his odds to score should be somewhere around -275.
Had the conditions of this game been more similar to the ones we saw when these two teams first met in Buffalo this season, I would say this is a no-brainer bet.
But for Saturday, wind won't be much of a factor. It'll be cold, yes, but as my colleague PJ Walsh wrote, 55.4% of NFL games played in freezing temperatures (32 degrees and below) with average winds below 10 mph have gone over the closing total.
That means offenses still reign supreme, even in cold temperatures.
Harris' prop bet has the most value by far as a result.
Josh Allen, meanwhile, has scored in five of his 17 games this season and the value just isn't there on that line.
Stefon Digg's touchdown prop at +140 also doesn't have much expected value. He's scored in nine of 17 games this season, which implies this line should be closer to -115. But as I've preached before, I'd avoid touchdown props with wide receivers and tight ends.
Generally, they're too variable for my liking and tend to have negative-expected value. But, this one admittedly has a slight edge. If you're feeling the action, go for it.
For my money, I'm sticking with Harris' TD prop and leaving it there.
Pick: Damien Harris to score a TD any time (+110)
