Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every slate and primetime game throughout the 2021 NFL season. He has a 411-310-4 (57%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
Rams–Seahawks Prop Bet
Van Jefferson Under 3.5 Receptions
The Rams passing offense should move the ball with ease against the Seahawks tonight (27th DVOA vs. pass). However, there are a few factors that make the under 3.5 receptions for Jefferson a sneaky play tonight:
1) I'm projecting Matthew Stafford to be highly efficient tonight, and while I'm in line with his passing yards market (300-305 yards), I'm projecting him for 24.5 completions, which is one below his prop (25.5).
Fewer completions = fewer receptions to go around.
2) Here are who each WR is expected to line up across from the most tonight:
Cooper Kupp -> Ugo Amadi (42.4 PFF grade)
Robert Woods -> Sidney Jones (35.7)
Van Jefferson -> D.J. Reed Jr. (67.7)
As you can see, Jefferson has the tougher matchup tonight. Head coach Sean McVay has also mentioned that he intends to get Woods more involved. Either way, I'm only projecting Jefferson to see approximately five targets tonight.
3) Jefferson's 72.2% catch rate this season isn't sustainable given his 13.8 aDot. A player with an aDot that high would typically have a catch rate around 60%.
I'm not necessarily "fading" Jefferson tonight; I still like his upside in fantasy as a low-end WR4/5 option. I would not be surprised if he hauls in a deep pass and/or scores a touchdown. However, I'm projecting him for 3.2 receptions and give him a 59.3% chance of going under 3.5 receptions. I would bet this down to -130.
Pick: Van Jefferson Under 3.5 Receptions (-120) at FanDuel
