Super Bowl Odds
Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes.
As one of the greatest quarterback matchups in Super Bowl history, it's no wonder Super Bowl 55 sports a high over/under. But how should you bet it?
Our NFL betting analysts and verified experts in the app are here to help — find their cases for both sides of the total below.
Super Bowl Over/Under Bets
Click on a pick below to skip ahead to that analysis.
Over 55.5
Palmer: Super Bowls tend to be more about defense, so it makes sense why many people are expecting a lower-scoring game, but we could see a higher-scoring showdown than the market indicates.
In their Week 12 meeting, these teams combined for 960 yards of offense with the Chiefs putting up 7.5 yards per play and the Buccaneers putting up 7.6 yards per play. Looking back, these teams performed well under expectation despite the Buccaneers not getting anything going offensively until that game was all but over, with the Chiefs holding a 27-10 lead before the Buccaneers scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to cover the spread.
Bruce Arians knows that the Bucs will have to be much more aggressive in order to beat this Chiefs team, so you can expect a faster start from an offense that's really found its footing after the Week 13 bye. The Bucs have averaged 34 points in the seven games since, scoring fewer than 30 points only once: Against Vikings, who controlled the time of possession 39:03 to 20:57, and the Bucs still managed to score 26 points.
As for the Chiefs, we just aren’t expecting them to run the ball very often against a Buccaneers defense that’s first against stopping the run and has Vita Vea back in the lineup. If the Chiefs are passing the ball more, that should lead to more points.
FanDuel is offering this at 55.5 as of Saturday afternoon (compare real-time odds).
Under 56.5
Freedman: I've taken a small position on the under, although I feel incredibly nervous about it because I'm basically betting against Mahomes and Brady.
It's not hard to see how this could go against me.
But my "models" (a.k.a. numbers thrown together in a spreadsheet) put this game at 55.5, and I feel the need to #TrustTheProcess.
In Week 12, the Chiefs and Buccaneers combined for 51 points in Tampa Bay, so we know the under is very possible despite the offensive prowess of both teams.
What gives me the most faith in the under is the matchup between the Bucs offense and Chiefs defense.
The strength of the Bucs offense is their wide receivers, but the Chiefs allowed a league-low 169 receptions to opposing wide receivers in the regular season. The Chiefs' defense is schemed specifically to limit production on the perimeter and downfield. And that means the Bucs will likely need to grind their way down the field in order to score points, and that will slow the game down, which should drive the total to the under … in theory.
Again, I'm betting against Mahomes and Brady. I'm fully aware I could look like a moron (or more of a moron) by Monday morning.
But if the Chiefs are able to limit the opportunities and production for wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown and force Brady to funnel the offense through running backs Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, then I'll like my chances of cashing this ticket.
BetMGM is offering the best number at 56.5 as of Saturday afternoon.
