Jake Elliott
Under 7.5 Kicking Points (-120, BetRivers)
The Eagles are the most aggressive team in the NFL on fourth down by quite a bit. They pass up on field goals at a 26% rate relative to expectation – the second-closest team to them comes in at 16%.
Expect Philadelphia to be even more aggressive in the Super Bowl in what should be a close game. The Chiefs only gave up 6.4 kicking points per game this year, and that's despite some bad luck!
Opposing teams made 100% of extra points against K.C. vs. an average of 94.6%. Opposing teams also made 92% of FGs compared to the NFL average of 85%. If the Chiefs had a little more luck there, it would be even less than 6.4 kicking points allowed.
The Chiefs faced the third-easiest schedule by opposing offense DVOA. The Eagles rank third in offensive DVOA, so expect them to be much more efficient than what the Chiefs have faced all year. That should lead to more TDs and extra-point opportunities than settling for field goals.
I project under 7.5 kicking points for Elliott at just over 60%, and I would bet to -140.
Pick: Jake Elliott Under 7.5 Kicking Points |
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