Vikings vs Broncos Player Prop: Ty Chandler
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Ty Chandler stepped up when Alexander Mattison went down last week and ended up rushing 15 times for 45 yards and a TD. He had two runs that went over this number.
While Mattison is more of a short-yardage grinder, Chandler is a smaller back with a ton of speed. He ran a 4.38 40-yard dash and if gets any room to run, he should be able to pick up yards in a hurry. It’s a small sample size, but Chandler has an explosive rush rate at 17% this season.
Chandler is facing a Broncos defense that has allowed a league-high 8% explosive run rate. I think the presence and threat of Josh Dobbs rushing the ball only helps a back like Chandler (similar to Keaton Mitchell). The defense may wait to see who the runner is between Chadler/Dobbs and give Chandler a head start on the edge.
Tom Pelissero of NFL Network reported that the backfield could be a “pretty even split” tonight. I think Chandler should get 6-10 rush attempts tonight, which should be enough for him to break at least one explosive run.
I’m projecting his median closer to 12.5 with around a 65% chance to clear 10.5 and about a 59-60% chance of clearing 11.5. It’s a very tricky market to project for someone with such a small sample size, but I think there is definitely value here and worth investing in.
