Jets vs. Oilers Odds
| Jets Odds | +143 |
| Oilers Odds | -165 |
| Over/Under | 5.5 |
| Time | Friday, 9:00 pm ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
| Odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings | |
The Winnipeg Jets have been driving hockey bettors crazy for years now.
The Jets are a solid, but not elite, team in terms of results, but their underlying metrics have always suggested an over performing team that relies heavily on goaltender Connor Hellebuyck to win them games.
The Jets were winning at a high rate through the first part of the season and challenged the Toronto Maple Leafs atop the North Division. However, the Jets lost nine of their final 12 games before the playoffs before winning Game 1 of this series.
The Edmonton Oilers aren’t without questions of their own. They have two of the more exciting players in the league with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. However, in Game 1, we saw what the Oilers look like when those players aren’t at their best. There are serious questions about the rest of this roster.
Will McDavid be able to help the Oilers even the series, or can the Jets steal another game on the road?
What We Learned In Game 1
If you’ve followed either of these teams this season, you shouldn’t be too surprised by what you saw in the series opener.
The Winnipeg Jets lost the 5-on-5 expected goal battle by a count of 2.98-1.38 (31.7%). Their defense allowed the Oilers to generate 13 high-danger chances. However, they won the game because Hellebuyck stopped 32 of 33 shots while posting a +2.09 goals saved above expectation (GSAx).
This is pretty consistent with what we saw from the Jets during the regular season. Winnipeg ranked 24th in the league in terms of expected goal rate and ranked 27th in expected goals against. The Jets were also bottom five in terms of high-danger chances allowed. However, just like in Game 1, Hellebuyck bailed them out by leading the league in terms of GSAx.
On the other hand, Connor McDavid had a subpar game for the Oilers and that usually spells trouble for Edmonton. McDavid had 105 points for the Oilers this season and was directly involved in 57.4% of Edmonton’s goals this season with either a goal or an assist. This is far and away the highest rate in the league. Edmonton went 2-8-1 in the 11 games where McDavid didn’t register a point this regular season. They are now 0-1 in the playoffs.
There will be a lot of narratives flowing from this game about how the Jets shut down McDavid and might have figured something out. Winnipeg had the 29th worst rush defense during the regular season and I highly doubt they figured out how to stop the best rush player in hockey during their few days off.
Nobody has been able to slow down McDavid in six seasons, and I don’t think this iteration of the Jets will be the first.
Jets vs. Oilers Best Bet
Despite the score of Game 1, the actual happenings of the game didn’t surprise us. Hellebuyck held the Jets in a game they were being outplayed in. Then, midway through the third of a tie game, they got a goal off a deflection. Two empty-net goals fluffed up the scoreline for the Jets.
Vegas has also not overreacted to the first game as the Oilers are similar favorites in game two as they were for the opener. However, with a consensus line of -160, the Oilers can’t be trusted. They are a flawed team themselves and Hellebuyck is the great equalizer for the Jets.
The Action Network's own Matt Russell recently wrote a great piece about backing Connor McDavid in the prop market as opposed to backing the Oilers as a team. Earlier in this article, I outlined how the Oilers go as McDavid goes.
Simple back-of-the napkin math tells you that by scoring 33 goals in 56 games, McDavid scores almost 0.6 goals per game. In other words, you expect over a goal from McDavid every two games he plays. Additionally, he scored seven goals in nine games against the Jets during the regular season. It’s slightly more complicated than that with more nuance, but it gives you a good general idea.
If you’re interested in backing the Oilers to even this series, you are probably expecting a big game from McDavid. The two are definitely correlated.
Rather than lay -160 on the Oilers moneyline, you should peek towards the prop market here. McDavid is +106 to score at least one goal. The points market isn’t up at the time of writing, but I’d also keep an eye on McDavid to register over 1.5 points in the game. If that number is better than the Oilers moneyline, it’s also worthy of a bet.
Pick: Connor McDavid to score at anytime (+106)
