Islanders vs. Penguins Odds
| Penguins Odds | -140 |
| Islanders Odds | +120 |
| Over/Under | 5.5 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
After spending the first month of the season on the road, the New York Islanders finally returned home to christen their new arena. However, their first few games haven't gone to plan. New York is 0-3-0, getting outscored 12-5. Things aren't getting any easier when they host the Pittsburgh Penguins on Friday night.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins overcame several setbacks after dealing with a COVID-19 breakout and are trending upwards since getting their roster back to full health.
Sidney Crosby and company have posted a cumulative expected goals-for percentage of 57.3% at five-on-five over their past five games, outplaying their opponents on three occasions. The Penguins have out-chanced their opponents in scoring opportunities in all five games and out-shot them in four of five games.
Those metrics jump even higher across all strengths, as the Penguins have increased production and output from their special teams. Pittsburgh has posted game scores above 60.0% in four of their five games, attempting 14 or more high-danger and 31 or more scoring chances in four of five.
The Penguins' success also correlates with Tristan Jarry's improved play. Jarry has a mind-numbing 98.3% save percentage over his past four games, helping the Pens to wins in all four.
New York Islanders
The Islanders are pointed in the opposite direction. New York has been outplayed in three of their past four, including game scores below 39.0% in each of their past two.
A lot of the Isles' misfortunes can be attributed to the fact that the team is going through a lineup crisis with seven players in Covid Protocol and two others on IR. In fact, the Islanders have just one of their six defensemen from Opening Night in the lineup on Friday.
The typically staunch Islanders have abandoned their defensive zone coverage over their recent sample, giving up 10 or more high-danger chances across all strengths in six of their past seven games. On average, opponents are attempting 12.7 quality chances over the seven-game sample, with the Islanders getting out-chanced in five of seven.
Those terrible metrics are reflected in the Islanders' outcomes, as they've dropped seven straight games, but we can't expect the Islanders' metrics to dip much lower. New York has a 0.899 PDO over its recent stretch, dropping its season-long rating to a fifth-worst 0.973. The Islanders have bottomed out and should start to see their metrics swing in the opposite direction.
Penguins vs. Islanders Pick
The Islanders need to figure things out and get their metrics working in their favor before the wins follow. We're anticipating that they put together a more valiant effort tonight, but not enough to knock off the red hot Penguins.
We're also betting this game takes longer than 60 minutes to sort out — Penguins in overtime.
Pick: Penguins -140; Will the Game Go to Overtime: Yes +320
