Panthers vs. Canadiens Odds
| Panthers Odds | -245 |
| Canadiens Odds | +198 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -104 / -118 |
The Panthers are at the end of a three-game road trip and have lost three of their past four games, so we aren't likely to see them at their best Thursday night. Still, they have to be better than the rebuilding Canadiens, who will be on the second half of a back-to-back, right?
Let's investigate that as we preview the upcoming Panthers-Canadiens contest and offer a Panthers vs. Canadiens prediction today.
Florida Panthers
Let's start with some good news for the Panthers. They're going through a bit of a slump, but their goaltending has remained excellent. The Panthers have surrendered just four goals in regulation over their past three games, despite going 1-1-1 in that span. Sergei Bobrovsky, who is likely to face Montreal, has a 10-6-1 record, a 2.49 GAA and a .910 save percentage in 17 starts this year. He's also traditionally done well against the Canadiens, posting a 15-7-1 record with a 2.48 GAA and a .921 save percentage in 24 career contests.
Combine that with Montreal's floundering offense — going into Wednesday's action, the squad ranked 27th offensively with 2.71 goals per game — and the Canadiens' fatigue, and Bobrovsky is a good bet to significantly limit the Canadiens' production. The bigger question is if he'll get enough offensive support.
Florida's offense hasn't been as bad as the Canadiens, but it's barely been better. The Panthers are scoring 2.91 goals per game, which is down from 3.51 in 2022-23.
Missing offensive defensemen Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad for the first 16 games certainly took its toll, but in the six contests since the blueliners returned from their respective injuries, Florida has actually regressed to just 2.33 goals per game. To be fair, those two defensemen might still be shaking off the rust. That may mean better things are to come, but it's not of much comfort tonight.
What's more likely in the short term is Matthew Tkachuk, who has just an assist over his past seven games, bouncing back. Tkachuk hasn't scored a goal over his past nine contests, despite firing 34 shots. There's certainly an argument to be made that he's due.
Montreal might be just the team for Tkachuk to end that goal-scoring slump against as he has 12 markers in 22 career games against the Canadiens.
Montreal Canadiens
Scoring on Montreal will be easier without Sam Montembeault in net as he's expected to miss this game after starting Wednesday. Instead, Montreal is expected to turn to Cayden Primeau, who has a 2-2-0 record, a 3.41 GAA and a .898 save percentage in four contests this season.
To be fair to Primeau, the team in front of him doesn't make his job easy. Going into Wednesday's action, Montreal had an xGA of 47.42 (26th in the league). So, the Canadiens' defense is typically subpar and that defense will be tired in front of a goaltender with a career .877 save percentage and just 25 games worth of NHL experience.
The Panthers couldn't ask for a better set of circumstances to heat up their offense.
The Canadiens need to stifle Florida's offense because Montreal's 0-8-1 in games where its opponent has scored four or more goals. That's hardly surprising given Montreal's woeful offense. As of Wednesday, 89 players in the NHL have managed to score at least seven goals and none of them belong to Montreal.
Montreal has a struggling goaltender, a subpar defense and a weak offense — and it'll be playing tired.
Panthers vs. Canadiens
Betting Pick & Prediction
Unsurprisingly, Florida is priced as a massive favorite.
However, I'm more interested in a bet with a higher possible return: Tkachuk as an anytime goal scorer. He's due after receiving some bad puck luck this year, and he's traditionally done very well against Montreal. Combine that with the state of the Canadiens, and I like his chances of breaking out Thursday night.
Pick: Matthew Tkachuk Anytime Goal Scorer (+145) | Play to +135
