Argentina-Canada Odds, Prediction: Copa America Best Bets

Argentina-Canada Odds, Prediction

Argentina and Canada meet again at Copa America, but this time it's in the Copa America semifinals.

Argentina got their first big scare of the tournament against Ecuador. They conceded a goal in stoppage time and ended up winning on penalties. They've been the overwhelming favorite to win Copa America all tournament long, but Canada could give them a scare here.

Canada beat Venezuela on penalties to get to their first ever semifinal at Copa America. Jessie Marsch has done a masterful job, guiding them through the Peru, Chile and Venezuela to set up a rematch with Argentina. They showed glimpses of being a real threat in the first meeting and are without a doubt live to pull off an upset here.

Here is my Argentina vs Canada prediction and Copa America best bet.

Argentina Picks

Argentina have been dominant throughout this tournament, but we saw the first blemish on their record against Ecaudor. They took the lead late in the first half, but Ecuador ended up creating 1.7 expected goals for the match and were dangerous on the break on numerous occasions. Canada posed a real threat in the first meeting, but in the end Argentina did what they do best and controlled the match from start to finish.

Argentina are a very patient build up team, but they are not super conservative like England or Brazil, for example. When you leave an opening for them to make a line breaking pass they will exploit and next thing you know they are in on net. What Canada tried to do in the first meeting is play a very narrow and condensed 4-2-4 defensive block to make sure that Argentina couldn't play through the middle. Because it was so condensed Argentina kept playing long balls over the top with a lot of success, and they ended up creating 2.9 expected goals for the match.

What Argentina also did was exploit Canada in transition in any opportunity they got. Once they went ahead in the second half, they didn't cede control and sit back, rather they kept coming. After they scored in the 49th minute, Argentina outshot Canada 11 to 3 for the remainder of the match. So if they go ahead Argentina are not just going to hold the ball, instead they will be going for the jugular.

Canada Picks

Canada were thoroughly impressive against Venezuela in a match that really never should have gone to penalties given how many golden chances Canada had to go up two goals. After their loss to Argentina, Canada have outplayed Venezuela, Chile and Peru to get to this point in the tournament, which is an impressive feat.

Before their match against Argentina, Canada tested themselves and played friendlies against both the Netherlands and France. While those friendlies didn't go perfectly, they did provide them with experience playing Jesse Marsch's system against elite competition. In the first half specifically, Canada pressed Argentina from their mid-block quite effectively and really made it difficult for them to play through the middle of the pitch.

What Canada have that most teams don't is a crazy amount of pace in their attack. Good transition teams can give Argentina problems. Uruguay are the only team to beat Argentina since the 2022 World Cup and it's because they hit them with quick transitions, which is what Canada did a couple of times. In the end, Canada created 1.2 expected goals for the match. Ecuador and France are the only other teams since the 2022 World Cup that have created over one expected goal against Argentina.

Argentina vs. Canada

Prediction

Given how the first match went between Argentina and Canada, it's fair to guess there are going to be a lot of chances at both ends.

That previous meeting featured 4.1 expected goals, 29 shots and 50 penalty box touches between the two sides. This will be a game state dependent type of match, but if there is an early goal, whoever falls behind is going to get increasingly desperate as the match goes along, which will create a high event type of environment.

I have 2.91 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 2.5 (+102 via FanDuel) 

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