Arsenal vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -110 |
| Liverpool Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -154 / +120 |
Arsenal and Liverpool will meet for the second time in less than two weeks to decide who moves on in the FA Cup.
The Gunners are going through a rough patch right now, losing back to back matches against Fulham and West Ham to drop them to fourth place in the table. They have really been struggling in the final third to put the ball in the back of the net and they did so in that previous meeting with Liverpool, creating less than one expected goal.
Liverpool are in incredible form at the moment, coming off one of the most dominant performances of the Premier League season against Newcastle on New Year's Day. The Reds are now sitting a top the Premier League table and look much better defensively than they did in the beginning of the season. They will be without their best player Mo Salah for this match, so we'll see what their offense looks like without him against the Premier League's best defense.
Here's my Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction.
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Arsenal
Liverpool put up a Premier League record 7.3 expected goals against Newcastle on New Years Day. They completely thrashed Newcastle's low block on to keep their 14 match unbeaten streak in the Premier League alive.
Liverpool 4-2 Newcastle
Liverpool starting 2024 on fire. That xG total 😳#LIVNEWpic.twitter.com/Bvwwosv7om
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) January 1, 2024
What has improved Liverpool drastically from the beginning of the season has been the introduction of Wataru Endo and Ryan Gravenberch into their starting XI. In the beginning of the season, Liverpool didn't have a great ball stopper in the middle of the pitch, so teams were able to play right through them and they got exposed in transition.
Jurgen Klopp couldn't deploy his aggressive high press and Liverpool had to play more passive, which was a hinderance to the potential they can reach given how good their attack is. Now, with those two in the lineup, the Reds are back to pressing like the Premier League title challenging teams of the past.
Against Arsenal, Liverpool had a PPDA of 6.4 and forced eight high turnovers, which is incredibly impressive because Arsenal are one of the best build up teams in the world.
Endo has already left for international duty with Japan for the Asian Cup, but Gravenberch is still available to be the ball stopper Liverpool needs. What the high press has done for Liverpool is allowed them to drastically improve defensively. Over their last nine Premier League matches, Liverpool have only allowed 7.5 non-penalty expected goals.
While Liverpool's attack has been awesome, Mo Salah has been a big part of that. His 0.93 npxG + xA per 90 minute rate by far leads Liverpool, so without him it's going to be hard to get through Arsenal's defense, not to mention Dominik Szoboszlai has also picked up an injury.
Liverpool
The biggest problem that Arsenal have run into in the final third is their ability to create chances through the middle of the pitch. The central parts of the pitch are where to goals are, which is why so many low blocks try to cut off central progression. Arsenal's best two attackers are their wingers Bakayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli, so Arsenal often try to get the ball to their feet as much as possible. What often happens is when they do receive the ball they get double teamed and are forced to pass the ball to someone else. With nobody really able to be a creator or being able to take advantage of the space created by Saka or Martinelli, it's put Arsenal in a position of peril where they can't seem to figure out how to steadily create chance.
So, what Arsenal have resorted to is being incredibly efficient on set pieces. They lead the Premier League with 11 goals off of set pieces this season and it's where their lone goal against Liverpool came in that previous meeting. Liverpool have struggled to defend set pieces, so it is a pretty big advantage for Arsenal, but their struggles to create chances from open play are concerning.
What has kept Arsenal in this title race has been their defense. The Gunners are only allowing only 0.74 npxG per 90 minutes and it's because they are one of the best teams in the world out of possession. Arsenal's high press has devastated most teams in the Premier League and it forced Liverpool to play transitional against them in the last match. What makes them so good is their transition defense. Having Declan Rice, William Saliba and Gabriel is so crucial to Arsenal being able swat away opposing counterattacks and they did so very successfully against Liverpool in the previous meeting, holding them under one expected goal.
Arsenal vs Liverpool
Prediction
Given what we just saw in the previous meeting, I don't see any reason why this match won't play out the same way. Arsenal lost control of in the second half at Anfield, so Arteta is going to be desperate to maintain it here at home.
Liverpool not having two of their best attackers available is a pretty big blow considering they created under one expected goal with them in the previous meeting, so I am not sure how they are going to fare against the best defense in the Premier League.
For Arsenal to be successful in this match, they are going to have to slow the tempo of the match down and control it, even if it's at the expense of their offensive production.
