Atletico Madrid vs Feyenoord Odds
| Atletico Madrid Odds | -163 |
| Feyenoord Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
After conceding in the 96th minute in matchday one to Lazio, Atletico Madrid look to get their first win of the group stage when they host Feyenoord.
Diego Simeone is no idiot. Towards the end of last season he saw the writing on the wall and decided to switch up Atletico's tactics, which has seen them have an offensive resurgence over the past six months. They went back to their old ways against Lazio, but with this being a situation where they almost need three points, you will most likely see a more aggressive approach.
Feyenoord got all three points in their opening match against Celtic, moving them to the top of the table. The Dutch champions are off to another great start domestically, but they've really struggled when they've had to face teams in Europe's top five leagues, and they will be without their best player Santiago Gimenez.
Atletico Madrid
Simeone used to be a traditionalist, utilizing a passive 4-4-2 low block and consistently putting out one of the best defensive sides in all of Europe. But then toward the middle of last season, things got stale and Atletico were struggling. So, Simeone switched Atletico into a 5-3-2, which ended up doing wonders to not only give them more tactical flexibility but it also allowed them to win 11 of their final 15 matches and finish third in the table.
The 5-3-2 allows them to do two things offensively. The first one is to create overloads in wide areas. This allows Atletico to either send in a cross or enter the box via the wide area for a cutback shot. It also pulls the opposing defensive block out wide, which creates a ton of space at the back of the post for crosses. This worked especially well against Real Madrid a few weeks back in their 3-1 win at home.
The second thing they like to do is use counter-movements, which is when an attacker makes an opposite movement from the ball, dragging a defender with him to free up space for an attacker to occupy the free space and eventually create a chance.
Alvaro Morata is one of the most intelligent tactically minded strikers on the planet. He gets a lot of flack for his poor finishing, but he is elite at doing this and is another reason why Antoine Griezmann has flourished in this new system.
When Atletico are out of possession, they have been much more aggressive pressing and trying to disrupt build-up play in their own final third. Once they win the ball, they try to get forward in a hurry to counterattack the opposing defense when they are out of position, which could work very good against Feyenoord, who are going be incredibly open to getting exploited in counterattacking opportunities.
Feyenoord
There are a couple things working against Feyenoord in this match. Under Arne Slot, Feyenoord play a style that is very similar to that of Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds teams from two years ago in the Premier League. They are reliant on high intensity pressing and looking to attack the opposing backline with blistering pace to create loads and loads of chances when they are out of position.
This is why they are putting up such eye popping metrics in the Eredivisie right now. They have a +15.8 xGD through only seven matches. However, while this style can be effective against teams in the Netherlands, they can struggle defensively against good attacking sides.
They played two matches against Lazio in the Europa League group stage, conceding a combined 3.4 xG over the two meetings. They then played Roma in the quarterfinals and got absolutely ripped to shreds, conceding 7.2 xG over the two legs. That was also a Feyenoord team with the Eredivisie player of the year, Orkun Kökçü, who is now at Benfica after putting up these types of numbers.
The other problem for Feyenoord in this match is that their best striker, Santiago Giménez, who has already scored nine goals this season and has a 0.68 xG per 90 minute scoring rate going back to the start of last season, is suspended for this match. So things are not looking great for Feyenoord.
Atletico Madrid vs Feyenoord
Pick & Prediction
Atletico Madrid were pretty passive in their first game against Lazio, with Simeone reverting back to his old Champions League tactics of sitting in a low block and trying to see out a 1-0 win. Lazio are a very slow paced team and nothing like the tempo that Feyenoord will present.
So, I don't think we will see Simeone revert back to a passive low block. Rather, I think we will see a counterattacking masterclass, exploiting a team that has been ripped apart by Roma, who plays a very similar style to that of Atletico Madrid.
While I don't think there is much value in laying it with Atletico at a high number, I do like the value on their team total.
