Bayern Munich vs Lazio Odds
| Bayern Munich Odds | -400 |
| Lazio Odds | +900 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
Bayern Munich look to erase a goal deficit when they host Lazio at the Allianz Arena.
Bayern are in peril right now. They are going to not win the Bundesliga title for the first time in 12 years after falling 10 points behind league leaders Bayer Leverkusen this weekend. It's already been decided that Thomas Tuchel is going to be out at the end of the season, but recent reports now are saying that if Bayern do not progress to the quarterfinals then they are going to sack him immediately, so there is a lot of pressure on Bayern here in this second leg.
Lazio getting a 1-0 win in the first leg wasn't really that big of a fluke. They did an incredible job defensively and can repeat the same plan here in the second leg. Lazio have fallen down to ninth in the Serie A table, so their main focus is going to be on the Champions League and trying to progress to the quarterfinals.
Read on for my Bayern Munich vs Lazio prediction.
Bayern Munich
There is no denying the underlying numbers are elite for Bayern, but when they’ve played against the top tier competition, it hasn’t gone very well. They recently were dominated by Leverkusen, needed a stoppage time winner to beat Leipzig and quite frankly weren’t that great in the first leg against Lazio.
The problem is Bayern Munich have become a pretty easy team to prepare for. They have some of the best individual quality in the world, which is why they've dominated a lot of lesser competition in the Bundesliga, but having great individual quality without a multitude of different build up options makes it easier for top tier out of possession sides to hold Bayern Munich at bay.
There is also the aspect of what is going on off the field for Bayern Munich. It’s already been confirmed that Tuchel is out at the end of the season. Because of the bad run of recent results and the fact that he is not popular in the dressing room that if Bayern get knocked out by Lazio he is done and they are bringing in a caretaker manager for the remainder of the season.
There is really nothing innovative that Tuchel has done at Bayern in possession that gives me much confidence that they are suddenly going to put three or four in the back of the net here in the second leg. It’s basically going to have to be crosses into Harry Kane, but if Bayern are going to just try and overload the pitch and that be the only plan, they are in trouble.
Lazio
Lazio took the blueprint that Leverkusen played defensively in their 3-0 win over Bayern by allowing Bayern to build up slowly, cut off space in the middle for dangerous passes and force Bayern to play the ball out wide. Leverkusen went with a 5-3-2 out of possession, while Lazio opted for a 4-4-2. They did an incredible job in that defensive block and Bayern Munich played right into their hands because their tactical approach in possession is incredibly predictable.
Bayern kept inverting their wingers with the aim of overloading the center part of the pitch, but they didn’t really try anything other than that. Lazio didn’t even attempt to press them and Bayern couldn’t find a way to get the ball into the penalty box through the middle. Lazio had a PPDA of 41, which is absurdly high and shows how passively they were playing, but the most important thing is it worked because they held Bayern to 26 penalty box touches and 1.1 expected goals.
The first leg wasn’t a fluke for Lazio because they are definitely capable defensively of keeping Bayern at bay again. They are only allowing 1.03 npxG per 90 minutes in Serie A and are allowing the second-lowest xThreat. They just held Milan to 1.0 xG playing with 10 men for most of the second half and then went down to eight men in stoppage time.
Bayern Munich vs Lazio
Prediction
The question you always have to ask with an underdog in the Champions League that pulls off an upset in the first leg is can they repeat the tactical plan from that match and be successful with it again in the second leg?
Given the situation we are in with Bayern Munich right now with how bad of form they've been in, all of the negative stuff going on off the pitch and the fact that they've become way too predictable, it gives Lazio a great chance to once again sit in a passive defensive block and keep Bayern from playing through the middle of the pitch.
As much as I don’t like Lazio, this line has gotten a bit out of hand. Bayern opened at around -300 and have risen up to -450 at some books, which I do not think is warranted.
I only have Bayern projected at -258, so I like the value on Lazio +1.5.
