Bournemouth vs Luton Town Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | -200 |
| Luton Town Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +115 |
Bournemouth look to remain red hot when they host Luton Town on the south coast.
The good times are rolling with Adoni Iraola and Bournemouth, as the Cherries have now won four of their last five matches and are firmly safe from the dreaded relegation battle. They are coming off a 3-0 thrashing of Manchester United at Old Trafford, so things truly could not be going better for Bournemouth.
Luton Town are back in the relegation zone after a bad run of form against a lot of teams in the top half of the table. They did at one point have a lead against both Manchester City and Arsenal, which is a huge accomplishment, but the defensive performances lately have been very poor. They are four points from safety at the moment, so they need to find a way to make up points in a hurry.
Let's get into my Bournemouth vs Luton Town prediction.
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Bournemouth
The Cherries are all the way back after beating Manchester United 3-0 at Old Trafford. Iraola’s tactics are finally starting to work, but this matchup will be a bit different.
His hybrid press, which is a mixture of man to man and zonal pressure, is designed to push and trap teams to one side of the pitch to eventually try and turn the ball over high, which leads to a transition opportunity.
Where the hybrid press is vulnerable is when teams try and switch the play because you are committing so many players to one side of the pitch, so it often leaves the other side the pitch vacant. Manchester United tried to manipulate this many times, but they weren’t good enough in their transition breaks when they did switch the play.
Luton Town are going to send the ball long and they are not going to even attempt to try to play out of the back, which is going to lead to some problems for Bournemouth. One of their biggest weaknesses this season has been transition defense. Bournemouth are 18th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed. That means 38.9% of the time an opponent enters the final third they are getting into Bournemouth's penalty area.
While there is a bit of a worry in defense, the offensive numbers have been sparkling as of late for Bournemouth. In their last five matches, they have created a whopping 10.6 expected goals and eight big scoring chances. Dominic Solanke is having an outstanding season, scoring eight goals and posting a 0.53 xG per 90 minute scoring rate.
Luton Town
Luton Town have played a lot of big boys recently, but the defensive performances recently have been incredibly poor. In their last nine matches, they have allowed 25.3 expected goals and 19 big scoring chances.
The problem is, they are not good enough in their set low block to keep teams from playing through the middle of the pitch. They do try and press high occasionally and have been successful at times because they have forced the 12th-most high turnovers, but once teams get into their final third it’s clear their defense isn’t good enough to keep their opponents from creating chance after chance. Even worse is their best defensive midfielder, Marvelous Nakamba, who leads the team in tackles + interceptions. is suspended for this match.
There is also the factor that their goalkeeper Thomas Kaminski is having a crazy good shot stopping season, which has kept the problem from becoming even worse. Kaminski has a +3.1 post-shot xG +/-, which is fourth in the Premier League.
By this point it’s pretty clear how Luton Town wants to play. They want to get the ball into wide areas and try to swing crosses to create chances. They have had success doing this as they’ve completed the second most-crosses into the penalty area. Bournemouth are 11th at defending crosses and have the second-lowest aerial dual win percentage, so they could find the back of the net via a cross.
Bournemouth vs Luton Town
Prediction
Game state is going to play a huge part in this match. If Bournemouth can score first and force Luton Town to come out of their defensive shape and play a back forth type match, this one is going to get off the rails quickly.
What Bournemouth did show recently in their 3-0 trashing of Sheffield Wednesday and 2-0 win over Crystal Palace is they have the capabilities to break down low blocks and that all of their chances don't have to come from the high press.
The question here is how good is the Bournemouth transition defense? Luton will switch the play, send balls over the top and do whatever they can to get the ball out wide to swing in a cross, which Bournemouth haven't been great at defending.
I have 3.45 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the over.
