Brighton vs Crystal Palace Odds
| Brighton Odds | -135 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +340 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 / +105 |
Brighton look to rebound from an embarrassing loss to Luton Town on Tuesday when they host Crystal Palace.
The Seagulls are falling behind in the race for the top four and are desperate for three points here. Brighton have dealt with a lot of injuries to their attack and it's hampered their ability to be clinical in the final third. That is bad news going up against a good defensive team like Crystal Palace.
Crystal Palace came from behind to beat Sheffield United on Tuesday, which moved them further away from the relegation zone. With their stars full healthy, Crystal Palace can finally become the best version of themselves, which is a team that is not like the normal Roy Hodgson teams.
Here is my Brighton vs Crystal Palace prediction.
Brighton
When you play against Roberto De Zerbi teams you only have two options, either you sit in a low passive defensive block or you give them what they want, which is to press high. For the longest time Brighton were struggling breaking down teams that would sit in those low blocks, but now teams are pressing them high and Brighton is making all sorts of mistakes in build up.
Luton Town went incredibly aggressive against Brighton and it caught the Seagulls by surprise, which led to numerous turnovers in their own end of the pitch. When they played Crystal Palace on December 21st the Eagles did not sit back in a low block like Roy Hodgson teams usually do. They pressed them high and did so effectively because it led to their only goal of the match.
Jordan Ayew breaks the deadlock at Selhurst Park!
📺 @USANetworkpic.twitter.com/VgGfOj0K8U
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) December 21, 2023
The fact that teams are able to press Brighton and cause these sorts of problems is really concerning because this is exactly what Brighton wants their opponents to do. De Zerbi wants his team to build out of the back, bait the opponent into pressing then once they get pressed they find the open space left by the defender that went to press the ball and exploit it. There is really no excuse for Brighton being this poor in build up because they are fully healthy across their back line and in the midfield. After the debacle at Kenilworth road, Brighton have now allowed 10.7 expected goals in their last six Premier League matches.
What is even more concerning is how limited Brighton are in their attack in terms of personnel available. Karou Mitoma, Simon Adingra, Solly March and Ansu Fati are all still out, but maybe most concerning is Joao Pedro is questionable for this match. Pedro has been Brighton's best attacking player this season. He leads the team with a 0.54 xG per 90 minutes scoring rate and is averaging a team-high 2.8 shots per 90 minutes.
Crystal Palace
Things are starting to trend in the right direction for Crystal Palace offensively.
Since Michael Olise has been healthy, Crystal Palace have been playing more open and trying to build out of the back. It makes sense to try and get the best qualities out of both of them by getting ball their feet rather than just trying to send long balls up to them. Their willingness to play more open has really benefitted their offense because in the eight matches that Olise has played in Crystal Palace are averaging 1.28 xG per 90 minutes, which is better than the 1.04 they were averaging without him.
With the willingness to play more open, Crystal Palace have tried to press opponents high much more often. Over the first half of the season they were one of the more passive teams in the Premier League. Now they are in the top half of the league in high turnovers and have 30 shots off of forced high turnovers, which is the same number as Manchester City.
The Crystal Palace defense has been good for a large part of the season because they were most playing in a compact low block. Now that they've started to play more open these past two matches, their defense has suffered, as they've allowed 13.7 expected goals over their last eight matches.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace
Prediction
The biggest thing that has let Brighton down this season is bad goalkeeping. The combination of Jason Steele and Bart Verbruggen has completely let them down. The two of them have a -4.1 post shot xG +/-, which is one of the worst marks in the Premier League, not to mention the number of mistakes they've made in build up.
With Olise healthy the Crystal Palace attack has certainly improved and their willingness to play more open has created back and forth type of matches like the one they just played against Sheffield United.
Since they had success in the previous meeting, I think Crystal Palace will try to press Brighton high again, especially since Luton Town had so much success doing so on Tuesday.
This is a good spot to try and fade the Brighton defense given how this match is most likely going to play out with Crystal Palace being aggressive out of possession, so I like the value on the Crystal Palace over 1.5 at +225.
