The highlight matches in Germany last weekend did not disappoint, as Bayern Munich survived a tough challenge from RB Leipzig in a 3-2 home victory. Bayer Leverkusen then embarrassed Borussia Dortmund in a 5-2 thrashing in Dortmund.
The gap at the top of the table is now nine points with 13 matches to play and odds of Dortmund or anyone catching Bayern Munich at the top are minuscule. However, the race for top four is as wide open as it was last season.
Leipzig is the best team of the bunch and has a 52% chance of top four per FiveThirtyEight, but Union Berlin, Mainz, Freiburg, Eintracht Frankfurt and Hoffenheim are quite competitive for that last spot.
There are a handful of crucial matches happening this weekend between teams in that upper mid-table shuffle, including Leipzig's home tie with Köln on Friday; Freiburg hosting Mainz on Saturday; and, Union Berlin and Dortmund facing off in Sunday's meeting.
Meanwhile, at the bottom of the table, Arminia Bielefeld looks to continue its recent unbeaten run of form on the road against European challengers Hoffenheim.
Bundesliga Best Bets
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Wolfsburg
| Frankfurt Odds | +125 |
| Wolfsburg Odds | +230 |
| Draw | +245 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Wolfsburg has been one of the biggest underachievers — along with Borussia Mönchengladbach — and is closer to the bottom of the table than the top. When you consider that Wolfsburg began the season in UCL competition and now has relegation potentially looming over its shoulder, it's been a disaster.
However, as is the case for one or two teams every year, it's more a matter of bad finishing and bad luck than truly poor performance. Wolfsburg actually have a positive expected-goal difference, but they've managed just 21 goals from 30.2 xG this season.
It's an average Bundesliga attack overall, ranking between ninth and 11th in key metrics like shots, xG per 90 and box entries. Yet, they rank 16th in the league in actual goals scored and positive regression is coming in a big way.
Compare this to Frankfurt, who started the year poorly and has turned its season around in the results department. However, Eintracht has been the beneficiaries of opponents not taking chances against them. They've allowed the most big scoring chances in the entire Bundesliga, conceded the sixth most box entires and fourth most crosses.
Frankfurt is overrated because its xGDiff is actually negative, implying the Wolves have been the better team. I project this as a toss-up and will take Wolfsburg +0.25 via the Asian Handicap spread line at -110 odds.
Pick: Wolfsburg +0.25 (-110)
Freiburg vs. Mainz
| Freiburg Odds | +110 |
| Mainz Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
If Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt have underperformed expectations this year more than most, perhaps no two clubs are bigger overachievers than Freiburg and Mainz. Both have legitimate top four and Champions League aspirations, performing well above their squad's talent levels.
Yet, both have also outperformed the underlying metrics and do have some regression coming, especially at the defensive end. Freiburg and Mainz have over-performed defensively more than any club in the league except Arminia Bielefeld and RB Leipzig.
Freiburg and Mainz have league-average keepers who haven't vastly over-performed. It's more that teams just haven't taken their chances at the typical conversion rate against them.
Regression looms for both of these defenses, especially when you consider that both are second and third in fewest goals allowed despite mediocre box entries and shot numbers allowed.
My projection for this match has both teams to score at -145 odds and this game should be more open than the top-line defensive records indicate.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-130)
Union Berlin vs. Borussia Dortmund
| Union Berlin Odds | +300 |
| Dortmund Odds | -115 |
| Draw | +285 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-155 / +125) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Dortmund and Union Berlin suffered setbacks to their respective title and top-four chases last weekend after Leverkusen scored five on Dortmund and Union lost 2-0 at Augsburg.
The underlying performances in those games, though, were quite different. Union conceded the opening goal from a goalkeeper error that included passing it right to the Augsburg player for an easy tap-in goal. Union dominated most of the match, created more than two xG away from home and was unfortunate to not get at least a goal or a point from the performance.
Dortmund also conceded an early goal due to a defender error that involved a pass right to Leverkusen, but the Blacks and Yellows were thoroughly outplayed on set pieces, counters and general flow of the game. This isn't the first match Dortmund has struggled, either.
Prior to that loss, Dortmund stole a 3-2 win at Hoffenheim despite being outshot, 16-4, and benefitting from an own goal despite losing the xG battle. Before that it was a loss to 2. Bundesliga side St. Pauli and a fortunate come-from-behind 3-2 win against Frankfurt.
Erling Haaland might be back in the lineup for Dortmund to boost the attack, but they've totally failed to control matches and Union Berlin should be able to sit deep and effectively counter the Blacks and Yellows.
Union presses less than any other team and will make fewer mistakes at the back than Dortmund. Throw in the attacking regression looming for the Black and Yellows, and they're quite overvalued in this matchup.
Pick: Union Berlin +0.5 (-110)
