Bayern Munich vs. Barcelona Odds
| Bayern Munich Odds | -190 |
| Barcelona Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +390 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Barcelona looks to secure a spot in the knockout stage when it travels to Germany to take on Bayern Munich.
Bayern Munich has already won Group E and has nothing to play for on Wednesday, except to potentially knock Barca out of the Champions League. Bayern manager Julian Nagelsmann seems to want to end the Spanish giants Champions League dreams because he said he will be rolling out his best XI on Wednesday.
It's pretty simple for Barcelona. A win guarantees second place in the group, but it would drop to the Europa League if it fails to win and Benfica beats Dynamo Kiev. Barcelona's form has been up and down under new manager Xavi, but it has a really bad history against Bayern Munich that it needs to erase.
Bayern Attack is Unmatched
Bayern Munich is playing like the best team in the world at the moment, having just earned a 3-2 win over Borussia Dortmund in Der Klassiker over the weekend. That gives the Bavarian giants a four-point cushion atop the Bundesliga.
Bayern currently has a +1.95 per match expected goals differential (xGD), which is the best mark of any team in Europe's top five leagues. Naglesmann has done wonders for Bayern Munich defensively, as it has improved from allowing 1.18 xG per match last season under Hansi Flick to only 0.84 this season.
Bayern has the best offense in the world, and it's not even close. Bayern is averaging 2.81 xG per match, 19.81 shots per 90 minutes, 3.43 big scoring chances per 90 minutes and 21.79 box entries per 90 minutes. No other team in the world is even close to those numbers.
I guess it doesn't hurt when you have one of the best strikers in the world in Robert Lewandowski.
Desperate Barca Faces Difficult Test
Barcelona hasn't been very good in Champions League play this season. If you throw out the two matches against Dynamo Kiev, it has a -3.4 xGD against Benfica and Bayern.
The first meeting against Bayern Munich was pretty ugly, as Barcelona lost 3-0, was outcreated 2.4-0.2 in terms of xG and allowed Bayern to have 30 shot-creating actions, per fbref.com.
Barcelona's La Liga form hasn't improved much ever since Xavi took over, but its underlying metrics have been better. In his four matches in charge, Barcelona has a +0.63 per match xGD, which is only slightly higher than its expected goal differential under Ronald Koeman.
Even though this match means nothing to Bayern and everything to Barcelona, I have a hard time seeing how it won't be motivated to knock the Spanish giants out of the Champions League.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This is a situation to make sure Bayern does in fact field a strong lineup. If a majority of its regular starting XI is playing on Wednesday, there is no reason why Bayern can't dominate Barcelona like they did in the first meeting.
If that's the case, I'll back Bayern Munich -1 at -115 to blow out Barcelona once again.
Pick: Bayern Munich -1 (-115)
