Bayern Munich vs. Villarreal Odds
| Bayern Munich Odds | -375 |
| Villarreal Odds | +900 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+100 / -130) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Villarreal pulled off the upset in the opening matches of the Champions League quarterfinal round last Wednesday when it earned a 1-0 home victory against Bayern Munich, setting up Tuesday's enticing second leg in Munich.
Bayern had one of its worst attacking displays of the season, marking just the second time since February 2020 it failed to score in a competitive match.
Away goals have been eliminated from European competitions, so the Bavarians just need to win in regulation by a goal to force extra time, regardless of the scoreline. If the Yellow Submarine can draw or win, though, it will improbably advance to the semifinals with wins against Juventus and Bayern in consecutive rounds.
As good as manager Unai Emery's side have been in this competition — and as good as it was when it won the Europa League last season — the odds are strongly against Villarreal advancing despite its lead. Bayern is a heavy -300 to advance, according BetMGM oddsmakers.
Villarreal didn't just get some bounces to go its way in the first leg to win, though. The Yellow Submarine had more expected goals, hit the post in the second half and kept Bayern's attack out of the penalty area and dangerous shooting positions.
The biggest question is whether Villarreal can once again defy the odds.
Bayern Munich Hoping to Overcome Deficit
Bayern had just 18 entries into the Villarreal penalty area when you combine passes, crosses and carries in the first game. For context, the Bavarians average 24 entries per game in the Bundesliga this season. The ball progression machine typically starts in the midfield, and that's where they've had issues of late.
The lacking depth in midfield has been tested by injuries and left them playing very attacking lineups to try to offset this. Manager Julian Nagelsmann made the curious decision to start young midfielder Jamal Musiala in a double pivot alongside Joshua Kimmich, despite typical partner Leon Goretzka playing the weekend prior against Freiburg. Goretzka then started last weekend against Augsburg as well.
Bayern has had its issues in defensive transition when Goretzka and Kimmich play and the problems have become even more pronounced when one is out of the lineup. Bayern played Kimmich and Thomas Muller against Bochum in a 4-2 defeat. Against Leverkusen, it conceded 1.8 xG with a Musiala-Kimmich double pivot.
Bayern tried Kimmich and Musiala with three defenders against Hoffenheim and gave up 1.6 xG in that game. When the Bavarians played Corentin Tolisso and Kimmich in a clash with RB Leipzig, they allowed 2.1 xG in the process.
The defense has had major issues because it's asking a ton of Kimmich and often, the midfield is getting caught too far forward joining the attack. Even with Goretzka back, he's been limited in his minutes and his performances have been spotty at times. We'll see where Nagelsmann opts to go in the midfield, but he's also forced to make a change at center back where Niklas Süle is out with an injury.
Villarreal Trying to Complete Huge Upset
Villarreal only had 38% of the ball in the first meeting, but managed to successfully avoid Bayern from having dangerous possession. The Yellow Submarine ranks pretty well at third in La Liga in direct attacks and that's where Bayern most specifically struggles on defense.
The club got into the Bayern penalty area 14 times and totaled 1.5 xG in the match that would have been even higher if not for a couple near misses that didn't turn into shots, plus an offside call that chalked off its second goal.
From a regression standpoint, Villarreal has actually underperformed its xG in attack in both La Liga and UCL this season. The defense has overperformed, too, which suggests there should be some goals. It has finished under its xG despite a quality finisher like Gerard Moreno in the middle of the attack.
The Yellow Submarine is excellent at playing through and around the press, which is a major key when taking on Bayern. The German side will keep a high line and chase the ball in packs, and Villarreal is fourth in Spain at Pressure Success Rate allowed. The side is certain to get some transitional chances and only need to take advantage of one to cash for us.
Champions League Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
I don't expect Bayern to be held scoreless again, even though Robert Lewandowski has also only produced five total non-penalty shots in the last three matches since returning from the international break. The Bavarians have too many good attacking pieces to be kept off the board. Yet, there's real concern about the defense and defensive midfield in transition that Villarreal exploited in the first leg and can do so again.
Had Villarreal been up multiple goals, it would have less incentive to attack and really might have parked the bus and dared Bayern to beat it. However, surely Emery knows that 1-0 isn't going to be enough to advance. The club is going to need a goal and I expect it to be aggressive early, similar to last week.
My projections have the Both Teams to Score (Yes) wager at -140 odds, but given the concerns with Bayern's defensive midfield and center-back injuries, I could get this even higher. The Bavarians' attack is sure to arrive on home soil, but don't count out Villarreal's countering into the space behind Alphonso Davies and through the middle through Danjuma once again.
I'd play Both Teams to Score (Yes) at -120 odds and will make it my top pick.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-120 | play to -130)
