Liverpool vs. Inter Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -175 |
| Inter Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-165 / +124) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CBS | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Champions League second legs have arrived, and either Liverpool or Inter Milan will be advancing to the quarterfinals of the competition on Tuesday.
The Reds come into the fixture with a 2-0 advantage thanks to their victory at the San Siro, and it's important to note that the away goals rule is no longer in effect. This means that no matter what combination of scorelines results in an equal goal differential over two legs, the fixture would go to extra time.
Liverpool comes into the fixture as a massive -4000 favorite to qualify for the next round, but how will this individual game play out?
Liverpool Boasting All-Time Form
No one would question the fact that winning 11 of 14 games across four competitions while losing none makes Liverpool one of the best teams in the world, but that doesn't do this team justice.
Liverpool has had to contend with one of the deepest and most talented teams in the modern era of the sport in Manchester City, and manager Pep Guardiola said this week that Liverpool is the toughest side he's had to face in his coaching career.
There's definitely a case to be made for that argument, and it's no surprise given the Reds' form. Liverpool has maintained a 0.8-plus expected goal (xG) differential in each Premier League game it's played in 2022 outside of two games. It has also notched a League Cup final win, an FA Cup quarterfinal berth and beat Inter at the San Siro in that span.
Furthermore, Liverpool hasn't lost a single Premier League game at Anfield with Virgil van Dijk in the lineup, showing how tough a task this is going to be for Inter.
A few injury concerns exist in the LFC back line, with Ibrahima Konate out of training on Monday and Joel Matip returning from a non-COVID illness, while Thiago Alcantara and Roberto Firmino were in training but are unlikely to start.
Inter Dealing With Bad Luck, Dip in Quality
Just a few weeks ago, Inter was a big favorite to retain the Serie A title and had a chance to upset Liverpool in the Champions League.
Now, after a 2-0 loss to Liverpool and just five points in its five Serie A games, Inter is a modest -150 favorite domestically and a +1500 underdog to progress to the quarterfinals of the Champions League. Part of that is due to poor play from the Nerazzurri, but it's also the result of some very tough fortune.
The result in the reverse fixture is hard to argue, as Liverpool's 1.46-0.5 xG-edge was definite and the Reds dominated in the final 20 minutes of the game, but that isn't the case in Serie A, where Inter lost to Sassulo 2-0 despite having a 1.5-xG edge and to AC Milan despite an even xG-margin. Inter also failed to win against Genoa despite a 0.4-xG edge.
These are the fine margins in the sport, and failing to convert chances will kill you. That's what Inter Milan has been dealing with.
Nico Barella remains out due to his red card against Real Madrid in the group stages, and Ivan Perisic is a question mark due to injury.
BJ Cunningham's UCL Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
As much as I want to ride the hot hand in Liverpool, there are a couple of limiting factors that make the favored side a tough play.
The Reds' +1.4 xG per game differential at Anfield in UCL action doesn't dwarf Inter's +0.65 xG/game differential away from home. With injury concerns tied to the Liverpool backline, it's possible Klopp's team will have to be a bit conservative pushing forward.
Considering their advantage heading into the second leg, that isn't the worst thing in the world for the Reds, who have one of the best — if not the best — center backs in the world in van Dijk.
Inter is in a remarkably tough position here, but don't expect the team to completely fold at Anfield. Getting a goal, I'm comfortable backing them to keep things interesting as one of the best away teams in the UCL thus far.
Pick: Inter Milan +1 (-110)
