Chelsea vs Newcastle Odds
| Chelsea Odds | -125 |
| Newcastle Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
Chelsea and Newcastle square off at Stamford Bridge in a crucial EFL quarterfinal match.
The Blues got things back on track Saturday with a 2-0 win over Sheffield United, but it sure wasn't convincing for the first 45 minutes. They were thrashed less than a month ago at St. James Park by Newcastle, so they will be out for revenge on Tuesday,
After crashing out of the Champions League, Newcastle have shifted their focus domestically trying to keep pace in the race for the top four and progress in the EFL Cup. The fixtures and injuries have been piling up for Eddie Howe's men, but they did get a well deserved 3-0 win over Fulham on Sunday, so they will be looking to build on that momentum on Tuesday.
Let's get into our Chelsea vs Newcastle prediction.
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Chelsea
We just saw this match less than a month ago, granted it was at St. James Park, but Chelsea got demolished by Newcastle 4-1 and the Magpies created 2.4 expected goals. Chelsea’s only goal came from a free kick and otherwise they didn’t create much for the remainder of the match, only having 0.5 expected goals.
Newcastle’s high press in that match completely dismantled Chelsea and now we are at a point where we have to question Chelsea’s build up play and if it’s even capable of playing through a decent high press.
Newcastle had a PPDA of 7.1 and forced nine high turnovers that match. Against both Arsenal and Manchester United they committed 12 high turnovers. Against Manchester City they committed seven high turnovers. Then Brighton had a PPDA of 5.6 against them.
Chelsea's defense is pretty bad in transition, ranking 19th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed. That is partly because they commit so many high turnovers, but also because they flat out struggle against good transition offenses.
Newcastle
This is a pretty bad spot for Newcastle. The fixtures have been piling up, as this will be their eighth match in less than a month. Even worse is injuries have piled up, meaning they have had to essentially play the same starting XI during that time frame as well.
Even with all of that, they have been getting results, beating Chelsea 4-1, Manchester United 2-0 and Fulham 3-0 over the weekend. The problem that exists for Newcastle with this fixture pile up is Eddie Howe's high pressing system is largely built on his players having energy. What Howe wants to do is press out of Newcastle's normal 4-3-3, force the ball wide, then go man to man and suffocate the opponent. They normally are one of the most physical teams to play through, which is why some of the best build up teams have struggled so much against them.
Because his team simply doesn't have the energy because they've played so many matches, Howe has switched his team out of possession to a 4-5-1 mid-block to try and win the ball around the half way line as opposed to winning it up high. Newcastle haven't been as effective in this mid-block, but they still have caused problems against some of the top sides.
What makes Newcastle so good, whether they're pressing in their 4-3-3 or 4-5-1, is how deadly they are in transition. The Magpies are No. 1 in the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals and big scoring chances largely because of their high press creating transition moments.
Chelsea vs Newcastle
Prediction
Chelsea's defense is the reason why they are not progressing they way they should. If you take away the 4-1 win against Tottenham, who were playing with nine men, the only teams that Chelsea have held under one expected goal this season are Nottingham Forest, Burnley Luton Town and Sheffield United. Any time they have to play a decent offense or a good transition team they get exposed.
They are also having a lot of problems in build up and without Reece James or Marc Cucurella things are about to get even more difficult.
This isn't a great spot for Newcastle because of the fixture pile up, they injuries they are dealing with and being on the road, where they have struggled this season. With all that being said, with both teams at full strength I would have this match projected at a pick'em, so I think the market has swung too far in favor of Chelsea, so I like the value on Newcastle +0.5 at +104.
